Jesse Olson is a technical analyst who believes that Bitcoin (BTC), if it experiences a severe stock market crash, could drop by 60%, to below $24,000, in 2026.
Takeaways from the conference:
- BTC could be impacted by a US stock market collapse of more than 50%.
- A negative Coinbase Premium and persistent ETF Outflows suggest a reduction in risk among institutional investors.
Bitcoin chart flags $23,980 worst-case downside target
It is not a Sunday postOlson published a chart of a Bitcoin price over a period of two weeks, showing that BTC may fall towards $23,980. This is based upon a volume-weighted long-term support line from Market Sniper Pro’s VWAP indicator.
BTC/USD chart. Source: TradingView/Jesse Olson
The yellow line represents an anchored volume-weighted price (aVWAP), which is used by traders to calculate the average value of an asset based on volume.
Olson’s line appears to be anchored at the bottom of the 2022 bear-market, and it is now able to slope upwards as a long-term potential support zone.
Olson forecasted a Bitcoin price of $23,980 as the base case in an extreme macro-sell-off where the stock market dropped by over 50%. Veteran market watchers have already warned about the type of stress Olson is warning against.
GMO cofounder Jeremy Grantham is one example. called This is a continuing discussion AI market boom a major speculative bubble. Michael Burry, however, has compared This rally will take place in the final phases of the Dot-com mania.
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Gary Shilling, an economist who has been also warned There is a US recession underway “almost inevitable” by year-end, with stocks at risk of a 20%–30% decline.
BTC is often traded like an asset with high risk during times of market stress. If the stock market drops, investors may have to consider reducing their exposure to crypto. This could make Olson’s $23,980 price level a crucial level on the downside.
The institutional Bitcoin demand is still weak
The Coinbase Premium Index also shows a bearish trend, as it tracks the Bitcoin price difference between Coinbase Binance.
A positive reading usually indicates stronger US institution demand. However, a low reading may indicate weakened professional buying on Coinbase or heavier sales.
Bitcoin has seen its index remain largely negative in the first half of 2026. This shows that institutions are not yet investing with confidence.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index vs. price. Source: CryptoQuant/Darkfost
Spotting Bitcoin ETFs show similar trends. The US-based fund has seen a $4.68bn net outflow since May. SoSoValue Data reflects a weaker demand among professional investors and ETF buyers.
US Bitcoin ETF net flows. Source: SoSoValue
“These investors don’t act like retail,” said Darkfost, a CryptoQuant-associated on-chain analyst, in a Sunday post, adding:
“They operate under permanent risk management logic, they’re not looking to buy a potential bottom, they’re looking for confirmation, for performance. And that’s not the case yet.”
In the past multiple analysts including Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn Traders who use pseudonyms Crypto KidAccording to, Bitcoin’s value could fall below $30,000 if the stock market crashes.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
