Bitcoin (BTC), has undergone four corrections since 2024. These have ranged from 18% to 28 %. The BOJ policy announcement of June 16 is now receiving renewed attention.
Currently, data point out that BTC faces a range of challenges. BTC whales distribution and inflows to exchanges may have more influence than Japanese monetary policies.
BOJ increases and Bitcoin declines: Will the history repeat itself?
Since Japan’s end of its negative rate policy, each increase in the BOJ rate has been followed up by a significant correction.
Bitcoin has corrected 18% since the hike of March 19, 2024. After the July 31, 2024 rise, Bitcoin experienced a 18% decline.
Bitcoin declined by 28% after Dec. 19, 2025’s decision, and nearly 25% following the increase on Jan. 24, 2025.
Bitcoins’ average loss across the four events was 22,4%.
BTC/USD, one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The sales did not take place under the same circumstances. In March 2024, the correction occurred after Bitcoin broke out to new highs in the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for spot Bitcoin. After months of consolidation, the July 2024 drop coincided with a sharp unwinding of the carry trade of the Japanese yen.
There were also drawdowns for December 2025 in both January and February. extended BTC 30-day spot demand is prone to rallies, as are periods of contraction.
BTC: demand for spot and futures contracts is declining. Source: CryptoQuant
Carry trading is often the link between BOJ and Bitcoin. Investors have been borrowing yen for years at low interest rates, and investing that money in higher yielding assets such as stocks and cryptocurrency.
Risk assets can suffer when BOJ rates are raised. The rise in rates on July 20, 2024, coincided not just with BTC but also one of the biggest unwindings from carry trade in recent times.
It is now less important. Japan’s 10-year Government Bond Yield has already increased to 0.75%, up from a rate of 0.1% in March 2024. climbed The percentage increase from 0.63% in the previous period to 2.68 % is a significant improvement.
Japan’s 10-year bonds yields have increased from 2024. Source: TradingEconomics
Japan’s borrowing cost is already higher today than it was during the negative rate era. Therefore, every additional rise represents a more modest policy shift than when the BOJ first shifted away from an ultra-loose monetary regime. The meeting on June 16 would be a continuation of the existing cycle, rather than introducing a new cycle.
Cryptic Trades also noted concerns over a renewed carry-trade unwind, and argued that Japan’s deflationary framework has been abandoned by 2024. The analyst added,
“The Yen Carry Trade has been dead ever since 2024. It is also a BIG nothing burger for the markets.”
Related: Bitcoin price may slide toward $30K as institutions dump 450% of daily BTC supply
BTC whales increase the pressure
The BOJ is an important macro-event that investors may want to monitor. However, the data from onchain indicates more immediate sources of pressure.
Moreno, Crypto Analyst noted that Binance has recorded rising BTC inflows from wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC and 1,000–10,000 BTC since the sell-off began in early June. Binance’s 30-day total of whales has increased to $6.6billion.
Source: Bitcoin whale exchange flow Source: CryptoQuant
Realized activity is showing signs of pressure. Whales, both short and long term, have suffered losses totaling more than $2 billion during this decline. This indicates that many large investors reduced exposure.
The short-term whales are particularly vulnerable. After briefly returning to profits for about 10 days early in May, the cohort still carries roughly $16 Billion in unrealized loss. The positions have now reached break-even and are a possible source of supply in times of rebound. MorenoDV stated,
“Taken together, these three readings describe the stress profile of a late-stage bear market: capitulating whales, distribution into weakness, and a fragile short-term cohort with its finger on the trigger.”
Related: Bitcoin may act as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ as risk-off pressure spreads: Bitwise
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Source: cointelegraph.com
