Bitcoin prepares for a strong rally to $138K

Takeaways from the conference:

• Bitcoin’s highest weekly candle closed at $119.310 and then rallied to $123,100.

• A short-term NAV Premium of 16 % signals moderate interest. This is below FOMO levels.

• After last week’s $1.18 billion inflow, the second largest single-day amount ever recorded by an ETF is now a major buy.

BitcoinBTC) price posted its most significant weekly gain of 8.74% since early May, closing its highest ever seven-day candle at $119,310. BTC reached a new all-time record of $123,100 in the early morning hours on Sunday on Binance. Market flows and onchain data indicate that current prices are around $120,000. This could be a continuation of the current rally, particularly with retail FOMO still being largely absent. 

The Net Asset Value Premium (NAV premium) compares market value of STH assets to the average cost basis. The NAV premium is currently at 16 percent, which falls comfortably within acceptable ranges. “moderate” Interest zone is marked in green on the map.

This range (0–25%) reflects a cautious optimism among short-term investors but remains far below the historically overheated 30–35% range, where FOMO-driven purchases have typically marked local tops.

Glassnode is another bullish factor. underlined Bitcoin spot volume has risen by 50% in the last week. This indicates that more people are joining the rally. Volumes are still 23% lower than the average for the entire year, which indicates that the market has not reached its full potential. Although participation has increased, it still isn’t at a high level of excitement. It suggests this rally could have more fuel.

The ETFs that track BTC in specific areas are called Spot BTC ETFs. “strong inflows regime”

Spot Bitcoin ETFs reported their second-largest inflows per day on record, with $1.18 billion. It wasn’t only the capital surge that propelled BTC to a new record high but it was also a sign of broader market changes. In the past, these shifts have not been short-lived. Strong inflows can last for several days, or an entire trading session, and provide a solid foundation for price movement. 

Ecoinometrics noted Current ETF flows behave as an “strong buy” Diverging from previously lukewarm signals “neutral” Status and adding additional weight to uptrend.

Coinbase Premium Index (also known as the Coinbase Premium Index) is an index that measures how much money a user has spent on Coinbase. reflects It is the longest period in this bull cycle that the 14-day simple moving (SMA-14), which measures the price difference of BTC on Coinbase and Binance, has been above 0.

The last time this metric was so strong was in early 2023. Its persistence indicates that US demand is still a major factor in price discovery even at such high levels.

Related: Bitcoin ‘shows no signs of fatigue’ as it overtakes gold in gains for 2025

Another 10% to 15 % rise in the weekly forecast

Bitcoin’s recent breakout has brought it above its all-time record of $111800. This is in line with past cycle behavior. Each time BTC cleared its highest previous weekly candle since 2017, the parabolic rallies have begun.

Bitcoin increased by 167% at the end of 2020, after it broke through its $20,000 high in 2017. It eventually peaked near $69,000 early in 2021. The next cycle saw it gain 49% in the following years after breaking that high of $69,000.

Each breakout has shown a clear trend of diminishing returns, to 49% from 167%, and is now likely to be 10–15% before any short-term correction. This pattern suggests that a short-term goal of between $132,000.00 and $138,000 is reasonable before the momentum begins to slow.

The logic is that the upside will be weakened as BTC explores new territory and experiences price discovery. According to the pace at which post-breakout price acceleration has historically occurred, a price target may be set in one or two weeks.

Related: ‘Don’t get trapped!’ Bitcoin price analysis sees dip with $118.8K in focus

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.