Bitfinex predicts that Bitcoin will retest its all-time high if this level holds:

Bitcoin’s resurgence in April has positioned it for a potential breakout toward its all-time high—provided one key technical level continues to hold. The latest Bitfinex Alpha reports offers an in-depth analysis of BTC market dynamics, as well the structural forces which may influence its future trajectory.

Bitcoins Reach All-Time High

You can also find out more about the following: reportBitcoin’s April gain was 14.08%, beating both its average historical return of 13%, and the monthly median of 7.3%. The rebound is particularly significant given the market’s early-April volatility, which saw Bitcoin plunge 32% from its all-time high of $109,590 to a low of $74,501—marking the steepest correction of the current cycle.

The sharp decline, exacerbated by trade tensions and other macroeconomic factors, seemed to indicate a more serious structural collapse. What followed, however, was a rapid recovery. Bitfinex analysts say this is an indication of a well-supported and resilient market.

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“Bitcoin has shown notable resilience relative to other risk assets,” The report highlights that Bitcoin has risen more than 32 percent from the lows in April to the local highs at $97,900. The rally is now facing a crucial test. Whether BTC can sustain and reclaim the $95,000 mark, as Bitfinex defines it. “a critical pivot point, acting as the lower boundary of a three-month range that defined market structure between November 2024 and February 2025.”

This report stresses that staying above the threshold does not simply reflect sentiment, but also has structural implications. According to analysts, a consolidation of $95,000 or more would signal that the market is moving back in a bullish direction and may pave way for another attempt at the historic high of $109,590. Failure to do so, however, “could turn the region into resistance once more,” The implications of an updated correction.

Bitfinex’s estimate of $93,340 for Bitcoin’s STH cost basis is key to the current bullish hypothesis. This metric—representing the average acquisition price of coins held by recent market entrants—has historically served as a dividing line between bullish and bearish phases. “The ability to reclaim and now consolidate within this zone is an encouraging sign,” This report indicates that sustained price increases above this level is likely “convert this range into a new support base, reinforcing bullish sentiment.”

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Bitfinex emphasizes this. “the significance of this level cannot be overstated.” BTC is still above BTC STH cost basis, it would prevent a large cohort of recent buyers from slipping back into unrealised losses—an outcome that could otherwise intensify sell pressure. According to the report, “The next few sessions will be crucial in determining whether this reclaim is the foundation of a new leg higher—or merely a local top.”

BTC is Strong

This report looks at on-chain data to gain a better understanding of the long-term convictions and price patterns among network participants. Miner reservesFrom December 2024 to May 2025, reserves rose marginally from 1,808,315 BTC to 1,808,674 BTC. Reserves rose slightly from 1 808,315 to 1,808,674 Bitcoins between December 2024 and May 2025. Bitfinex says that this stability will continue. “strongly suggests a deliberate holding strategy,” Especially given the fact that miner’s often have to sell their holdings in order to pay for operational costs. It is believed that their continued caution signals a bullish outlook for the longer term.

It is a further confirmation of the behaviours that miners exhibit. Puell MultipleThe profitability indicator is widely used. This indicator compares miner revenue against a 365-day mean and remains below the 2,0 threshold which historically corresponds to major market tops or sell-offs. “Miners, by nature and necessity, are some of the most disciplined participants in the ecosystem,” Bitfinex’s readers are reminded. The fact that they continued to hold Bitcoin through its recent 32% rally lends more credence the idea that this current rally isn’t just reactive but structurally supported.

The Bitfinex Alpha Report summarizes the BTC market today as one marked by thresholds of critical importance and cautious optimism. The recovery has been impressive and rapid, but now all eyes are on the range between $93,340 and $95,000. This report suggests that Bitcoin may be able to return to its upward path and reach its highest level if it can hold support above the $93,340-$95,000 range.

BTC is currently trading for $96,923.

Featured image was created using DALL.E chart by TradingView.com