The key takeaways:
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Bitcoins’ next rally could be driven by possible Federal Reserve rate reductions in light of weak US employment data.
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BTC has recovered from the wedge pattern and is now aiming for $129,000.
BitcoinBTCThe US Stock Market dropped to below $111,000 after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data. slashed The payroll data show a drastic reduction in employment of 911 000 jobs, the highest since 2009.
BTC could fall further as the US recession risk grows? Let’s examine.
US Stock Market History suggests BTC Owners “will reap the rewards”
In its benchmark revision for March 2025, the BLS reduced 880,000 private-sector jobs and 31,000 government-sector positions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, but employers only added 22,000 new jobs in August, as compared with 75,000 anticipated.
Main Personal Consumption Spending (PCE) inflation held at 2.9%, raising recession risks. If the Federal Reserve does not intervene with a looser monetary policy.
By Tuesday, the odds of central bank officials approving a 25-basis point rate cut were up to 92%. CME data suggests that two more rate reductions may be implemented by the end of 2025.
“The Fed will be cutting rates into hot inflation because the labor market is weak,” The Kobeissi Letter is a market commentator. wrote, adding:
“Asset owners will reap the rewards.”
The same is true in history.
In the 1990–1991 recession, for instance, the US Federal Reserve slashed rates to 3% from 8.25% even as core PCE hovered around 4% and unemployment climbed to 6.8%.
The stock market initially dropped by more than 20%, but rebounded to over 30% in the year following as Fed credits became cheaper.
The Kobeissei Letter has predicted that gold will surge by 40% before the BLS review in 2025. noting The metal traders also have “priced-in [weaker job numbers] for months” already.
Bitcoin is expected to mirror gold in price if similar conditions are repeated. the history of their lagging correlation Is there any evidence?
Related: Bitcoin taps $113K as analysis sees ‘return to highs’ on Fed rate cut
Bitcoin: Can it reach new highs?
Bitcoin is poised to surpass its previous record of $124.500.
It appears that bulls have taken control, with a target of $129,000 near the Fibonacci 1.618 extension. That’s a potential gain between 12% and 15%.
Bitcoin also continues to trade over its 20-week EMA. (The red wave is around $108 500) This reinforces the bullish perspective and confirms support under current levels.
A decisive close above the $115,000–$116,000 resistance zone could bring the buyers back, accelerating the rally toward new all-time highs and marking the next leg of Bitcoin’s bull cycle.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
