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Bitcoin Monthly Option Expiration Could be First Step to $120K

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Bitcoin Must Hold $108K to Prevent Bearish Reversal: Trader
Bitcoin Must Hold $108K to Prevent Bearish Reversal: Trader

The key takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s $4.3 million options expiry is favorable to neutral and bullish bets. If prices remain above $113,000, there will be a $175-million edge.

  • Bitcoin’s future trajectory may be determined in the short term by macroeconomic factors, like weak US job data or doubts about AI.

BitcoinBTCOracle Corporation’s (ORCL), which is a leading player in the artificial intelligence industry, released a report that was positive. This led to a surge of over $114,000 for on Thursday. This move drove Bitcoin’s price to the highest in over two weeks. It also raised expectations of a stronger bullish trend ahead of BTC’s $4.3 billion valuation. options expiry This Friday

USD aggregated BTC open interest on Sept. 12th, BTC. Source: laevitas.ch

This week, put (sell) options dominated the expiry with $2.35 Billion in open interest as compared to $1.93 Billion in call (buy) contracts. Call options still have an advantage after Bitcoin’s price has moved from its $107,500 lower lows of earlier September. In a crypto market that is typically positive, the current put option imbalance is unusual.

Deribit is the market leader with 75%, and OKX has 13% of Bitcoin weekly share. Binance and bybit each account for about 5%. Deribit is the dominant player in this market, and its position offers the most accurate indication of whether Bitcoin will be able to push past $120,000 within the next few months.

BTC Sept. 12 options open interest at Deribit, USD. Source: Laevitas.ch

Deribit has a low open interest for bearish and neutral positions. Less than $125 millions of put contracts have been placed at $114,000 on Deribit. More than $300 million worth of call contracts will be active if Bitcoin continues to trade above $113,000 by Friday. The $175,000,000 advantage call buyers have could be the catalyst needed to continue Bitcoin’s bullish trend.

Bitcoin may be restricted by the US Job Market and AI Sustainability.

Oracle’s share price increase of 36% on Wednesday was fueled by the expectation that earnings would be stronger after it announced an increased contract value of $455 billion. The Wall Street Journal later reported that OpenAI accounted alone for $300 billion in Oracle’s backlog. This raised concerns over the sustainability of AI growth.

Source: X/sam_mielke

X user sam_mielke pointed out how Nvidia’s (NVDA), which rents the AI datacenter, benefits by selling its equipment to Oracle. Post suggested that the firms were engaging in some form of financial fraud. “cycling,” Effectively converting capital expenses into revenue. 

The recession worries could boost Bitcoin bulls’ confidence that they will reach a new high by 2025, regardless of whether the critics are right.

The optimism of traders has been hit by Tuesday’s steep drop. negative revision United States employment statistics. Ebrahim Poonawala is a Bank of America equity analysts warned Yahoo Finance says that rising unemployment can weaken credit at large banks. He did note, however, the fact that credit losses are still relatively low. “a non-event” Throughout 2025.

Related: Crypto traders’ current fear won’t last long, analysts say

In the event that Bitcoin remains at $112,000 by Friday, open interest in call options is greater than that of put options, resulting in neutral-to bullish strategies. If the price drops below $111,000 by 8:00am Friday morning, then put options will gain an advantage of $100 million.

The final decision on Bitcoin’s future direction will likely be made at the last moment. Macroeconomic uncertainties are the key factors.

The article does not provide legal advice or investment recommendations and it is intended for informational purposes only. These are solely the opinions, views, and thoughts of the author and may not reflect the opinions and views of Cointelegraph.