Bitcoin Breaks Red September Cycle Third Time Consecutively

Bitcoin broke a 3-year negative average summer return streak, but now it’s gaining momentum. enters its worst monthThe ‘known as “red September.”

The month of September is known as the “Month with the Lowest Bitcoin Returns” (BTC), averaging –3.77% across 12 years from 2013. In addition, it is also the time when China implemented two significant crypto-bans in 2017.

Six consecutive years of loss from 2017 until 2022 have weakened this record. In 2023 the tables were turned, with Bitcoin posting two consecutive September gains. Its best ever September was in 2024 when it ended up at 7.29%.

The reputation comes from equities, where September is also the weakest month for the S&P 500. This is when investors return after the summer and take a riskier stance. They rebalance their portfolios heading into fourth quarter.

The doom doesn’t usually last. Losses from September are usually replaced with losses in either October or “Uptober,” Bitcoin has only experienced two losses and six gains over the past 6 years. CoinGlass.

Red September and Bitcoin

Bitcoin was not well-known in its early days. Its price fluctuated and wasn’t widely monitored. It was not until 2013 that the Bitcoin asset broke $1,000. This brought mainstream media coverage and improved records. CoinMarketCap was launched in 2013, followed by CoinGecko the following year.

Related: June remains Bitcoin’s danger zone, while S&P 500 eyes summer rally

Bitcoin’s performance in September was equally split between 2013 and 2016. There were two months of positive and two months of negative results. In 2017, during the initial-coin offering boom, Bitcoin broke the pattern by crossing $1,000 and then $2,000 for a second time. The speculation frenzy lead to China’s central bank to ban ICOs on Sept. 4The first of six red Septembers followed. South Korea was next with their own ICO ban on Sept. 29While regulators in other countries issued warnings,.

In the wake of this, a new crypto-winter was born as countless ICOs collapsed. Bitcoin was down from the December 2017 peak of near $20,000, to just below $7,000 by September 2018. Goldman Sachs was accused in a media report on Sept. 5. abandoning its crypto desk plans. Later, the bank dismissed the story You can also read about how to get started. “fake news.”

In September 2019, the much-awaited long-awaited launch of Bakkt’s Bitcoin futures. Trading volumes were low despite high expectations of institutional inflows. The debut was labeled a failure. Bitcoin fell from near 10,000 to less than 8,000 dollars three days later. Binance Research’s report of September 30, 2019 quoted Bakkt as Bakkt. “disappointing start” The word “a” is pronounced as: contributing factor to Bitcoin’s price decline.

In the following three Septembers, we saw the effects of the Pandemic Era and its aftermath. COVID-19 was initially responsible for Bitcoin’s initial rise. narrative as an inflation hedgeCapital will be redirected to Ether in September 2020 (ETHThe snare is a. “DeFi Summer.”

China will strike again in September 2021 with another a ban on crypto mining and trading. The following year, Terra/LUNA collapse in May left deep scars, and September’s 0.75 percentage point rate hike — its fifth in a year of seven hikes — added salt to Bitcoin’s injury.

Bitcoin’s “red September” streak breaks 

Bitcoin’s September loss streak ended in 2023 after six years. On August 29, a Federal appeals court decided that Grayscale’s refusal to change its Bitcoin Trust into a Spot Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), was invalid. was “arbitrary and capricious.”

This decision forced the regulators to revise their application, and it re-instilled confidence in the possibility of a US Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin climbed about 4% in September as a result of the ruling. US Federal Reserve also boosted sentiment by keeping rates at current levels steady After 11 increases in 12 meetings, starting March 2022.

Related: Bitcoin treasury flops: These firms fumbled their BTC bets

In early 2024, Spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in the US and listed. In mid-year, financial instruments routinely posted billions in trading volume every day. The macro conditions fueled the market as the Fed cut rates on September 18, 2024. first since March 2020.

Next came the launch of World Liberty Financial The narrative quickly became woven in the US presidential election of 2024. The project was presented as Donald Trump’s crypto-aligned venture and launched while Trump was in the middle of his presidential campaign.

Bitcoin’s price could drop further if the rate is cut. “red September” The curse

Bitcoin, which is a digital currency that will enter September 2025 with the weight of its history, has a lot to live up to. This month is a long-standing stumblingblock, marked by tightening cycles and regulatory shocks that have shattered investor confidence.

The backdrop for this year is stronger than previous downcycles. Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to be a source of institutional capital and generate millions in annual turnover. In 2025, companies in financial trouble have used Bitcoin Treasury Strategies to try and turn their fortunes around.

There are also new rumors coming out of China in the crypto sector, with reports that Chinese authorities were investigating. could allow stablecoins pegged to the offshore yuan. As of yet, the officials haven’t confirmed.

Jerome Powell makes dovish comments in his Jackson Hole final speech. Source: Associated Press

Investors are focusing on the US because the Fed seems to have shifted. In late August, Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered his final Jackson Hole speech Before his term expires in May 2026. It is one of most watched global economics events, since Fed chairmen often use it to give hints about policy directions.

Powell warned The following are some examples of how to use “pain” The Fed continued to raise rates aggressively, which was bad news for businesses and households. In this year’s speech, he adopted a cautious tone. saying The following are some examples of how to use “shifting balance of risks” The Fed may need to adjust its policy.

A further reduction in the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Sept. 16-17 is expected.

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