Bitcoin is trading at a crucial level. It has remained stable above $118,000, but it’s not gaining momentum to break out. The price action continues to tighten, with analysts expecting a big move when either supply is absorbed by key zones or demand breaks through. Market participants are waiting to confirm the next trend.
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New data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant shift in behavior among long-term investors (LTH). LTH’s supply started to fall at $118K. It was a sign that a distribution period had begun. The holders who are known to accumulate during downtrends before selling at a profit, now slowly unload their positions. This is a transition that often occurs at the end stages of bullish trends and repeats macro cycle patterns.
Pressure continues to increase as Bitcoin struggles to overcome resistance, and LTHs decrease exposure. The current price range may be re-ignited by a clean break above it. momentum BTC may reach new highs while a breach below support could trigger a steeper correction. In either case, this current standoff is not going to last for long. Coming days may bring a decision that could set Bitcoin on its next leg.
LTH Distribution Starts as Bitcoin Mirrors Falling 2024 Pattern
Axel Adler is a leading analyst highlighted A key change in Bitcoin’s structure. Adler claims that the LTH has decreased by over 52,000 BTC, a dramatic change in behaviour. These holders, typically seen as the market’s most patient participants, are now beginning to reduce their exposure—just as Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation range.
This change from accumulation towards distribution closely resembles LTH’s behavior in fall 2024 when Bitcoin went from $65,000 to $100,000. In this period, investors sold steadily into the strength of the market as it pushed upwards, locking profits when late-stage momentum began. Adler suggests that if the current trend continues, the distribution phase will intensify with each price leg up—just as it did in previous macro cycles.
This transition must be made at the right time. Bitcoin remains just below its record highs while altcoins show increased volatility. The capital rotation process may be accelerated as Ethereum, and other major assets start to move faster. It remains to be determined whether this will benefit or pressurize Bitcoin.
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BTC Maintains Stability As Range Tightens
Bitcoin is still in a narrow range of consolidation between $115.724 and $122.007, the chart for 4 hours shows that it’s currently trading at around $118.817. BTC recovered from last week’s lower limit and trades now above the SMA 50 ($118.175) and 100 ($118.228). The 200 SMA is also well above ($113.777). The moving averages are flattening, reflecting an ongoing balance between buyers and seller.
BTC, despite multiple tests in the $118K range, continues to show resilience, displaying resilience as the selling pressure is muted. Volume, however, remains low—suggesting that traders are still in wait-and-see mode, looking for a decisive breakout before committing to larger positions.
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Since mid-July the upper resistance level of $122K has remained unchanged. Each attempt to break through this barrier was met with rejection. Volume confirmation of a clean break over this level would indicate a continuation in the uptrend. This could lead to a new high. If the price breaks below $115K, the structure will be invalidated and volatility is likely to increase.
Featured picture from Dall E, chart by TradingView
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
