Bitcoin’s next higher leg sits within a wider “everything, everywhere, all at once” bull market that echoes the 1950s more than the 1990s—and the underlying engine is fiat debasement that will continue to funnel monetary premiums into neutral reserve assets such as Bitcoin and gold. Mel Mattison is a macro investor with a wealth of experience. He presented his core thesis during a comprehensive interview that was published by Milk Road Macro on Monday, October 7th.
Mattison, who is a fintech executive and has worked in the finance industry for over 25 years, believes that investors have misinterpreted the cycle, by looking at relationships between the 1970s and the 1980s rather than the older regimes more aligned with current times. “I actually think the most similar decade is the 50s,” he said, noting that the S&P 500’s average annual return then “was over 19%,” The 1990s were a decade of rapid growth.
He described 2024–2025 as an “everything everywhere all at once rally… bonds, stocks, gold, Bitcoin, real estate,” Driven by an interest rate cycle that spans decades and a global “debasement trade” This has become mainstream. “The scariest thing to me right now is that Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are saying the same thing that I was a year ago.”
Bitcoin and gold to dominate the debasement era
Within that framework, Bitcoin plays the role of digital gold—one of two “neutral reserve assets” Mattison sees the world as poised for a monetary increase, as fiat adapts to rising levels of debt and geopolitical realignment. Mattison framed it as an “gold war, not a cold war,” The steady accumulation of gold reserves in the official system and other settlement systems is a good example.
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“People do not understand… this is just getting started,” “Both gold and Bitcoin are in a bull market,” he stated. Although he views gold near-term as stretched, he reiterated that a target for the long term is in line with other macro analysts: “Do I think [gold is] going to $20,000 in the next 10 to 15 years? Yes, absolutely.” Bitcoin shares, he said, are the equivalent of the secular bid. “Bitcoin I see as digital gold and that’s being accepted.”
Mattison’s call for a supercycle is heavily based on policy architecture. Mattison argues the US Federal Reserve’s obligation to keep interest rates stable is undervalued by markets. “moderate long-term interest rates,” Alongside price stability, maximum employment is also important. “Under the statute, the FOMC has three distinct mandates… unemployment, price stability, and making sure that long-term interest rates are moderate,” He criticised the notion that the third leg was secondary.
This will, in practice, lead to policymakers focusing on the issue. yield-curve control (YCC)–style Interventions if necessary to limit long-tenor rates and stabilize the debt service. “There’s no way that they can let interest rates get out of hand,” he argued, adding that the Fed could halt quantitative tightening and significantly expand its balance sheet without necessarily reigniting 2021–2022-style inflation.
“The Federal Reserve could… easily take [its balance sheet] to $20 trillion in the next decade without creating massive inflation,” He claimed that the growth in money supply and its velocity, rather than public debt, is what drives sustained price pressure.
His view is that the policy path is inherently favorable to assets with monetary features. He dispelled recurring worries about the foreign sale of Treasuries. “When people talk about… China or Japan [selling], there’s no threat from that,” he said, arguing that domestic absorption—by banks, mutual funds, stablecoin balance sheets, or the Fed itself—can readily backstop issuance.
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The interest rate was called by the speaker “stimulus,” They prefer to recycle their products with US-based holders, rather than overseas. In such a setting, he thinks index-heavy positions will not outperform the active position in winning stocks: “To me the big alpha is… in gold and bitcoin,” Emerging markets will also be able to benefit from a softer global financial climate if YCC measures or similar ones anchor US duration.
The markets can go much higher for longer.
Mattison’s historical perspective also influences his risk calendar. The current combination of fiscal-monetary coordination, geopolitical faultlines, and globalization is similar to World War II. He compares it with the Marshall Plan and Korean War. He expects the rally to broaden beyond mega-cap tech as artificial intelligence redistributes value away from traditional SaaS moats, but he also flags a latent social-cohesion shock—an eventual phase when “not only do you want to reduce, you want to just get out of risk… even gold.”
It isn’t imminent, said he. “I honestly think that’s at least 12 to 24 months away at a minimum and possibly longer.” Until then, he urges investors not to underestimate how far markets—and Bitcoin—can run in a true bubble phase. If you haven’t experienced a bubble, it is hard to imagine what the market can do. [the late 1920s or late 1990s]You don’t know what markets are capable of,” he told me. “In a bubble environment, which I think we’re heading into, it can go a lot higher and a lot quicker.”
What Could be the Largest Bull Run in the Past 50 Years? @MelMattison1
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⏱ TIME… pic.twitter.com/TqZML1j9TZ
— Milk Road Macro (@MilkRoadMacro) October 7, 2025
Mattison’s Bitcoin model has an obvious implication: Bitcoin will be more popular as long as there is a trend toward less restrictive effective policy. financial conditions BTC is a monetary asset that earns premiums alongside gold. Near term he anticipates volatility—”very short term [gold is] due for… a rest,” he noted, implying risk for correlated trades—but the secular path, he insists, remains higher. “I’m not saying this time is different,” “He said” “I’m actually saying this time is like all the other times”—just not within the living memory of most investors.
BTC is currently trading for $12,451.
Featured image was created with DALL.E chart by TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
