Bitcoin inflows projected to reach $420B in 2026 — Bitwise

The key takeaways

• In terms of growth in the early stages, spot Bitcoin ETFs already surpass gold ETFs. By 2027, there are projections for annual inflows exceeding $100 billion.

• Nearly 1.7 Million BTC are held by publicly listed companies as well as nation states, which shows a long-term trust.

• Bitwise estimates that Bitcoin will reach a value of $120 Billion by 2025. This figure is expected to rise to $300 Billion by 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) demand from a diverse range of investors—including publicly listed companies building Bitcoin treasuries, sovereign wealth funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and nation-states—is projected to drive substantial capital inflows to the asset in the coming years. Bitwise’s crypto index fund manager estimates that Bitcoin inflows could be as high as $120 billion in the year 2025. An additional $300 billion is expected in 2026.

The latest report by the U.S. “Forecasting Institutional Flows to Bitcoin in 2025/2026,” Bitwise reveals that US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will record $36.2 billion of net inflows by 2024. This is a significant increase over the initial success of SPDR Gold Shares, which transformed gold investment. Bitcoin ETFs reached $125 billion in assets under management (AUM) within 12 months—20 times faster than GLD—projecting Bitcoin to outperform gold significantly, with inflows potentially tripling to $100 billion annually by 2027.

Due to the risk-averse policy of major corporations, such as Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs that manage $60 trillion worth of client assets, $35 billion was not spent on Bitcoin in 2024. The firms need to have a multi-year history, but the growing legitimacy of BTC ETFs is expected unlock these funds.

Jurrien Timmer is the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity. remarked Bitcoin’s trading at above $100,000 indicates its potential to replace gold as a value store. The analysis pointed out that the Sharpe ratios of Bitcoin and Gold have recently converged, indicating that they are both becoming more comparable when it comes to risk-adjusted return.

Related: Bitcoin price ‘breather’ expected as short-term traders realize $11.6B in profit

BTC Wealth Allocation: Bull, Bear and Base Cases

Bitcoin has become increasingly popular as a currency reserve among private and public firms. Bitcoin companies currently on their books hold around 1,146,128 BTC, BTC is worth approximately $125 billion. This represents 5.8%.

The United States, China, and the United Kingdom are the top three sovereign nations in terms of holding 529.705 BTC (57.8 Billion BTC).

Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon and UXTO lead Guillaume Girard expect that wealth will continue to be allocated towards BTC. They also outlined the bear case, base case, and bull scenario.

In the bear-case, nations reallocated 1% (323,000 BTC) of their gold reserves towards Bitcoin. The result was a $32.3 Billion inflow (323 BTC or 1.54 % of supply). Multiple US states have created BTC reserve at 10% adding an additional $6.5 billion. Wealth management platforms allocate 0.1% assets (60 billion) Public companies also contributed $58.9billion, which brings the total to more than $150 billion.

Base case assumes that a nation-state allocation of 5% would generate $161.7 Billion (1,617,000 BTC, or 7.7% supply). US states increased their adoption from 19 billion dollars to 30 billion ($19.6 Billion), while wealth platforms invested 0.5% of their assets ($300 billion) and public companies held $117.8Billion. The scenario is in line with Bitwise’s prediction of $120 billion and $300 billion, respectively. This would capture 20.32% Bitcoin’s supply.

The bull case is a nation-state exchange of 10% gold for Bitcoin that drives inflows of $323.4 Billion (3,234,000 BTC, or 15% of the supply). US State adoption climbs to 70% ($45.8billion), Wealth platforms allot 1% ($600billion) while public companies quadruple the amount they hold to $235.6billion. All told, this inflow could be worth $426.9 Billion and absorb 4,269,000 BTC.

BTC is increasingly gaining interest from institutional investors, governments and other institutions. This shows that there’s a growing belief in Bitcoins value in the long term. Bitcoin, with 94.6% already mined (i.e. 19,868,987 BTC by May 2025) is being increasingly viewed as an alternative to inflation and debasing fiat currencies.

Related: Will Bitcoin bulls secure $110K before BTC’s $13.8B options expiry?

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.