The data suggests that Bitcoin will rally to $120K.

Takeaways from the conference: 

• Bitcoin inflows at Binance are now down to 5,147 BTC. That’s less than half their previous levels during the bear market, even though BTC is trading over $105,000. It could be a sign of a decrease in short-term sales pressure.

• Bitcoin’s 50-day EMA has been reclaimed, which is historically a sign of breakout rallies. Technical indicators such as rising CVD point to strong demand at the spot and a potential upward movement towards $120,000.

BitcoinBTCInflows and Outflows (on Binance) can provide insights on market sentiment. Data from CryptoQuant pointed Binance reported that BTC inflows for the 30-day average moving (DMA) on June 24 dropped to only 5,147 BTC despite BTC prices being comfortably over $100,000. The 30-DMA flows in December 2024, when Bitcoin’s value was under $100,000, were three times as high, at 13,200 BTC. 

Inflows, on the other hand, can be a direct reflection of investor behaviour, particularly during periods when investors are derisking or taking profits. In the past, spikes have been associated with increased inflows. BTC inflows Exchanges tend to coincide with market tops in local markets, which precede short- to medium-term corrections. The FTX collapse of late 2022 was a good example, as monthly BTC flows surged up to 24,000 BTC. This was due to panic buying.

The latest data, however, paints an entirely different picture. Binance has seen monthly inflows plunge below bear-market benchmarks despite Bitcoin’s trading over $105,000. The monthly BTC inflows to Binance are less than half of the levels experienced during the FTX, and they’re significantly below the 12,000 BTC average recorded every month since 2020.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. added Adding more context about the inflows of BTC and outflows is saying.

“The inflow/outflow ratio (Inflow/Outflow 30-day SMA) remains at a high level, comparable to the end of 2023 -beginning of the bull market, which indicates still strong demand for BTC.”

This sharp decline in investment flows strongly indicates that investor strategies have changed. Instead of rushing into selling at strength, participants on the market appear to hold onto their coins.

The broader context remains complex. Any bullish trend must be cautiously considered due to the market’s response to current macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. Although the data indicates a more long-term and confident investor, prices could still be affected by external shocks.

Related: Bitcoin price analysis now sees up to $111K liquidity grab next

Bitcoin could rally as high as $120,000 if it reclaims the 50 day EMA

Ibrahim Cosar is a cryptocurrency trader who believes that Bitcoin’s recent return to its exponential moving (EMA) 50-day average may be setting the stage for a rise towards $120,000.

Cosar believes that the 50-day EMA is a technical key level which has traditionally acted as a strong support in corrective phases of uptrends. Cosar noted a pattern in which brief dips beneath this level are followed by swift recoveries that show bullish breaks of 10 to 20 percent. Analyst added, 

“After the recent pullback, Bitcoin briefly closed below the 50-day EMA but has now posted three consecutive daily closes above it. This reclaim is typically a bullish signal, and we’re seeing a similar setup that has triggered major upward moves in the past.”

Crypto commentator IT Tech pointed The rising CVD spot indicator shows that BTC bulls have the upper hand. The CVD (cumulative volume delta) indicator is used to measure over time the change in the buying pressure and the selling pressure by using aggregated data. It is clear that a rising CVD indicates a strong demand for BTC at ten-year prices. 

Related: Bitcoin ETFs log biggest June inflows at $588M, extend 11-day streak

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.