Bitcoin Futures Are Bearish Despite Inflows of ETFs

The key takeaways

• Bitcoin futures premium fell to a three-month low even though prices were only 8% off their high.

• BTC option metrics have turned negative, despite the stock market’s resilience under macroeconomic pressure.

BitcoinBTC( derivatives metrics flirt with bearishness, despite BTC trading at just $103,300, 8% lower than its previous high. The short temper of cryptocurrency traders is well-known, particularly those who trade leveraged positions in futures. But the lack of optimism at this time seems unusual.

BTC dropped to $102,400 because of deteriorating macroeconomics?

Bitcoin derivativesIt could simply be a fear of the unstable socio-economic situation.

Under neutral conditions, monthly Bitcoin futures To compensate for the long settlement period, traders typically set their prices 5% to 15 % above those of spot markets. The indicator remains below neutral since the rejection on June 12 at $110,000.

This metric shows a decline compared to the two-week period prior, despite Bitcoin trading at $100450 on Friday, June 5. Thursday marked the lowest futures price in 3 months. The BTC Futures Metric is lower now than it was in April when Bitcoin fell 10% within 24 hours, to $74,440.

Bitcoin Options Markets can be used to confirm if the fear is only confined to futures monthly contracts. If traders expect a crash in the price, they will pay a premium for put options (sell). This increases the skew value above 5%. The indicator moves below -5 % during periods of bullish market.

Bitcoin option skew stands currently at 5%. It is just on the cusp of neutral or bearish sentiment. It is a stark contrast from June 9, when this indicator briefly reached a bearish -5 % level, after Bitcoin had jumped up from $105,500 towards $110,000. It shows that traders are growing increasingly frustrated with Bitcoin’s performance.

Even as Middle East tensions weighed heavily on investor sentiment, the Russell 2000 US small cap index remained at the 2,100-level support. Recession risks In the United States, interest rates remain above 4.25 percent despite persistent inflationary pressure.

Related: Bitcoin rally to $120K possible if Fed eases rates due to tariff and war impact

Bitcoin’s institutional appeal is strong, but it contrasts with the derivatives market

Cryptocurrency traders are well known for their extreme emotional swings. They will often panic sell during uncertain times or display excessive optimism when bull markets is on. Bitcoin derivatives are currently weak, suggesting traders do not believe that $100,000 will be able to hold.

Incredibly, the demand for institutional investment has not waned during this period. US-listed Bitcoin Spot exchange-traded funds Net inflows into ETFs totaled $5.14 Billion in the 30-day period ending June 18th. In addition, companies such as StrategyMetaplanet H100 Group The Blockchain Group BTC was acquired in significant amounts during this time.

There is no way to know what will lead Bitcoin traders back to confidence. Bears are more likely to become confident, though, if BTC prices remain near $100,000.

The article does not provide legal advice or investment recommendations and it is intended for informational purposes only. This article is solely for informational purposes. It does not represent or reflect Cointelegraph’s views.