Bitcoin Futures show fear as US Trade War Risk Resumes

Takeaways from the conference:

• Derivatives show that Bitcoin traders have limited confidence despite ETF inflows. Downside risks are therefore still present.

• The gold price surge and the falling Treasury yields are signs of growing investor anxiety as trade tensions and fiscal pressures weigh heavily on investors’ mood.

BitcoinBTCSince Monday’s $126.219 record, the price of has failed to maintain its bullish momentum. Inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs indicate a strong institutional demand. However, the lack of BTC derivatives metrics indicates traders are still uncertain whether or not $117,000 will be maintained.

Bitcoin monthly futures trade at a 7% discount to spot market prices, with little movement over the last week. This premium typically rises above 10% during periods of optimism as the demand for leveraged, long-term positions increases. The data shows traders’ optimism hasn’t improved despite Bitcoin’s 14 percent rally from Sept. 28 to Oct. 7 as the indicator is still near its previous level.

Bitcoin is lagging behind gold as tensions between the US and China cause gold to reach a record high

On Wednesday, gold surged up to near a $4,050 record, indicating that investors were seeking security as the United States faced a fiscal crises and slower economic growth. Ray Dalio, a billionaire portfolio manager is renowned for his investment expertise. said The risks posed by the spiraling US debt “threat to the monetary order,” Bloomberg.

US President Donald Trump has accused China of increasing port charges on rare earth minerals exports and threatening to a “massive increase” in Chinese import tariffs in response. The S&P 500 index fell 1.9% as investors grew concerned that escalating trade war tensions could hurt corporate earnings, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector.

Bitcoin can be viewed in many ways. digital gold, its correlation with the S&P 500 remains significant, with the rolling 40-day relationship currently at 73%. Fears of an imminent stock market decline appear to have a major impact on traders’ appetite for risk. This is supported by the high demand for US Government bonds with a short maturity.

Investors are willing to accept lower yields despite the persistent pressures from inflation. US Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 2.7% over last year in August. This was the largest increase in 6 months. Analysts predict that import duty will cause prices to rise in 2026.

This shows that traders are still concerned about the downside of price. Interestingly, this indicator last showed optimism on July 18, following a 13.4% two-week rally — suggesting that whatever is restraining Bitcoin bullish sentiment has been in place for quite some time.

The demand for stablecoins in China can provide valuable insights into the traders’ positions. Stablecoins are typically traded at 0.5% to a greater discount than the official US Dollar/CNY exchange rate when investors exit the crypto market.

Related: Banks explore launching a stablecoin linked to G7 currencies

Since Wednesday, Tether has been trading slightly below parity. This suggests that traders had previously cashed out when Bitcoin was struggling to keep its bullish momentum. The metric was back to parity once BTC dropped below $120,000. This indicates that traders no longer want to leave the crypto market.

Bitcoin has seen a net flow of $5 billion, despite the impressive growth. spot exchange-traded funds So far, in October (ETFs), confidence has remained subdued due to the high macroeconomic risks. BTC derivatives metrics indicate that traders have yet to become bullish on Bitcoin, leaving the price of Bitcoin open for more downside.

The article does not provide legal advice or investment recommendations and it is intended for informational purposes only. This article is solely for informational purposes. It does not represent or reflect Cointelegraph’s views.