Bitcoins Freeze Over $100k After OG Whales Dump’ on Wall Street

Bitcoin’s price continues to rise above $100,000. However, this consolidation is more complicated than it appears on the surface. “FOMO” ETF euphoria. According to multiple leading analysts, a silent rotation is underway—one that suggests long-term holders are offloading their positions while corporate treasuries and institutional buyers quietly absorb the flood.

OG Bitcoin Whales Are ‘Dumping’ On Wall Street

Charles Edwards is the founder of Capriole Investments. delivered A sobering analysis via X, June 29th. This challenged the prevailing view that Bitcoin’s stagnant price amid increasing demand was anomalous. “People are wondering why BTC has been stuck at $100K so long, despite the institutional FOMO,” “It’s because Bitcoin OGs (long-term holders) have been dumping on the market,” he wrote. “Despite the X-news’s suggestion, this is because Bitcoin OGs are dumping their long-term holdings on Wall St “Since the ETF Launch January 2024, they are unloading all their positions.”

Edwards, who is well-known for blending macroframeworks with onchain metrics, has pointed to an obvious dynamic shift being captured now in blockchain data. While older coins are being redistributed, a newer class of holders—primarily treasury-oriented entities—are stepping in aggressively. “We have clearly entered the heat of [the Treasury Company] trend today as many copy-cats have entered the market,” he said referring to his prediction earlier on Bits and Bips corporate adoption In the long run, ETF inflows would be surpassed in importance.

This transition is made even more remarkable by the statistics that support it. Edwards highlighted that 6-month-plus BTC holders—commonly associated with more strategic, non-speculative accumulation—have skyrocketed in the past two months. “The amount of BTC acquired in the last 2 months by this cohort has completely consumed all of the BTC unloaded by LTHs over the last 1.5 years,” He said. “Incredible.”

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This group’s aggressive acquisition, said he, had historically been preceded by bullish squeezes. “Whenever aggressive spikes in 6M+ holders occur, price usually squeezes following these periods. Short-term bullish,” Edwards remarked. Edwards tempered his optimism, however, by warning that the broader data on-chain still indicates fragility. “If the 6M+ holders (Treasury Companies) can continue their relentless buying, that should be achievable,” He noted that while the flywheel is gaining momentum, it’s not immune from systemic pressure.

Mauricio di Bartolomeo (Co-founder, CSO and Co-founder of Ledn) offered an alternate theory to add another layer. He suggested that what appears as two flows—LTHs selling and Treasury entities buying—might in fact be “the same trade.” The writer wrote: “Long term holders [are] selling spot to buy ETFs/BTC Treasury Cos. Even though that feels unnatural for us bitcoiners.” Di Bartolomeo defined the shift as a generational one, noting that some early adopters are more comfortable with traditional financial custody than they are with self-sovereign pockets.

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Edwards rejected that explanation. She argued, that the ETF migration would show up in multiple ageing cohorts. “I don’t think so because we would have seen a similar uptrend over time in the 6M+ and 1Yr+ cohorts if that was the case,” “He replied,” he said. “Some is definitely moving to equities, but it’s very typical of this stage of the Halving cycle to see LTH selling into profit.”

Bitcoin ETF does not have a 1 to 1 effect on the price

TXMC’s on-chain analysts have also commented about the apparent contradiction between rising prices and a stagnating demand. warned Most observers are misinformed about what determines Bitcoin’s value. “Bitcoin people grossly underestimate how little of the supply is actually setting the price every hour,” He wrote. He described Bitcoin’s fragmented markets as a network of exchanges that are siloed and loosely synced through market making across exchanges. “Each location has its own liquidity and depth which vary wildly. A large market order can have an outsized effect depending on which exchange it is placed at, and which time of day.”

TXMC claimed that ETFs or institutional desks have been accumulating large amounts of Bitcoin. However, the majority of these transactions are being routed through OTC desks You can bypass the order book completely. “These actions do not affect the price in the same way,” He said. “The desks source their own liquidity, and only have to go into the books to fill the difference.”

The explanation could explain why ETFs have not been able to drive BTC much higher despite billions of dollars in inflows. Edwards’ thesis is also in agreement with the above, since it suggests that ETFs may have fueled redistribution and not outright demand. TXMC also added: “Stop underestimating how many big entities are out there looking for exit liquidity.”

The true test will come despite an increasing bullishness of cohort composition. The real test will be whether corporate treasuries can absorb any remaining waves of Bitcoin’s early holders. If Edwards’ prediction is correct, then the rotation has already passed its crucial phase.

“The flywheel still has a long way to go,” Edwards ended. And if history is any guide, these moments of consolidation amid redistribution tend to precede volatility—not follow it.

BTC is currently trading for $108,044.

Featured image was created using DALL.E chart by TradingView.com