According to analysts, the crypto markets are prone to four-year cycles of bull and bear that revolve around Bitcoin’s halving. However, experts and analysts believe this cycle could unravel.
“Top 100 Bitcoin treasury companies hold almost 1 MILLION Bitcoin,” said Jason Williams is an author and investor who wrote a piece for X Sunday.
“This is why the Bitcoin 4 year cycle is over.”
Matthew Hougan Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management made CNBC published an article on Friday with similar remarks.
“It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over,” Hougan said, echoing comments The last time he did this was in July.
Bitcoin’s peak price has occurred in each of the three previous market cycles in the year following the halving. This was in 2013, 2021 and again in 2025.
Four-year Crypto Cycle: Game Over
“It seems more likely than not that the 4-year cycles are over,” agreed Pierre Rochard was the CEO at The Bitcoin Bond Company.
Then he added, Bitcoin halvings You can find out more about this by clicking here. “immaterial to trading float,” The supply of BTC comes from 95% mining. “buying out OGs,” Demand is increasing “the sum of spot retail, ETPs getting added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies.”
Related: Macro drivers will dampen Bitcoin’s halving cycle — Tim Draper
“The four‑year halving cycle remains a useful reference point, but it’s no longer the sole driver of market behavior,” Martin Burgherr told Cointelegraph that he is Chief Clients officer at Sygnum Bank.
The market will mature as macroeconomic factors, institutional capital flow, regulatory changes, and ETF adoption The influence of the internet has grown.
“In practice, the four‑year framework is becoming one of several inputs rather than the market’s central script.”
Crypto analyst ‘CRYPTO₿IRB’ was of the opposite opinion, telling On Sunday, he told his 715 000 X-followers that claiming the four year cycle has gone is “wrong.”
ETFs are a good way to increase four-year cycles in crypto because the cycles of traditional finance run on four-year cycles, and ETFs make it easier. “crypto-tradfi correlation.”
“Not to mention 4-year halving cycles which simply just can’t be cancelled as they’re mathematically programmed lol,” “He added, appearing to refer to Bitcoin’s half-doubling events.”
Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca told Cointelegraph reported in July, that a bear market could last for a long time and four-year cycles were still valid.
“So many people are saying, ‘Oh, the institutions are here, and, therefore, the cyclical sort of nature of Bitcoin is dead.’ I’m not sure I agree with that,” He said.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
