Bitcoin’s daily Kumo break has brought a bullish signal into focus. CarpeNoctum, an analyst who blogs as Josh Olszewicz shared a chart of BTC’s performance on X after each daily Kumo break since 2015.
“BTC forward performance of daily kumo breakouts since 2015,” CarpeNoctom wroteThe TradingView chart shows the most recent breakout date of May 6, 2026.
The Bitcoin price is now a lot higher.
This table shows that the completed signal skew is overwhelmingly positive. After prior daily Kumo breakoutsBitcoin had a higher value one week later, in 22 cases out of 26, with an average increase of 6.21 % and a median rise of 5.08 %. BTC returned positive results in 20 out of 26 instances, with an overall average of 14.045%, and a median return of 12.00%.
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Longer windows show a signal with a higher historical profile. Bitcoin’s performance was positive in 18 of the 26 trading cases three months following breakout. This averaged a gain of 39.48% with a median increase of 26.37%. BTC remained positive six months later in 22 cases out of 26, with an overall return of 74.36%. The median was 46.04%. One-year data are even more stunning: Bitcoin is higher in 22 cases out of 25, with an 186.01% average and a median increase of 129.46%.
The highest one-year gains occurred in major bull markets. In the months of September 4, 2016 and October 7, 2016, breakouts were preceded by one-year gains in excess of 615.08%. A breakout on April 1, 2017, followed by an annual gain of 525.35%, and the breakout on April 23, 2020 led to a one-year return of 581.82%. A breakout in October 2020 produced 237.35% for a three-month movement, 430.84% for a six-month moving, and 393.65% over a year.
Chart also shows the signals reliability hasn’t been consistent. It has been observed that breakouts in weaker and late cycle conditions have produced negative results. After the breakout on Aug. 13, 2021, there was a decline of 48.89% in one year. The Oct. 1, 2020 signal came before a drop of 59.90%. In more recent times, the breakout of April 22, 2025 showed positive returns after a year, despite a drop in 16.31%.
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A cautionary note is the most recent signal completed before May 2026’s breakout. It was Oct. 1, 2020. Bitcoin’s price rose by 3.98 % in a week. However, it fell back 7.60 % a month later, 25.46 % three months after, and 43.74 % six months after. The table does not include the return for one year.
The chart is framed for traders as an asymmetrical trend signal, rather than a prediction. According to the median returns, this pattern often appears near meaningful upside continuationBut the signals that failed tend to be clustered around times when the overall market structure degraded shortly after the breakout.
BTC was trading at $80.735 as of press time.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
