Takeaways from the conference:
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Bitcoin’s target is $122,000. This is where 2 billion dollars in short-liquidations cluster, however Q3 seasonal data indicates a decline.
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Low trading volume, a falling RSI and spot BTC ETF withdrawals are all signs of waning bullish momentum.
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A rally could be triggered by the FOMC minutes, and good news from White House.
BitcoinBTCThis liquidity absorption, often a precursor to directional moves, occurred as the. The liquidity was absorbed, which is often the precursor of directional movements. $100 million In long positions, liquidation was made. Despite the drop, the 100 day exponential moving average (EMA), on the 4-hour chart, continues to provide dynamic support and limit downside risk.
As the minimum buy-side liquidty is not visible above $114.500, it’s now easier to move up. The next key area of interest lies between $120,000–$122,000, an area of sell-side liquidity where stop orders are clustered. The daily supply area between $121,400-$123,200 represents the previous price resistance and adds to the confluence. BTC could attempt to sweep away the external liquidity that has been established in the last two weeks.
The BTC Liquidation Map data confirms this bias. It shows that around $121,600 worth of BTC short position could be liquidated.
Related: Bitcoin price gained 50% the last time its volatility fell this low
Bitcoin can surpass 122,000 dollars
The short-term structure of the market suggests a bullish rebound, but the longer-term set-up indicates BTC’s bullishness could be diminishing. Double tops could form near the all-time peak, indicating buyer fatigue. This bearish pattern would be validated if the price did not break above the daily supply zone of $123,200.
Onchain data confirms this warning. Bitcoin’s relative daily strength index dropped Daily volumes also fell, from $8.6 billion to $51.7, showing waning participation. The spot BTC ETF flows have also fallen 80% in the past week, from $2.5 to $496.
Futures are a good way to invest in the market. open interest The long-side financing is increasing, and at $45.6 Billion. This suggests a growing level of overconfidence. Also, 96.9% supply is still profitable, which indicates a high level of profit taking.
This is further reinforced by August’s historical performance. The upcoming month will be a challenge, as over 60% of August ended in red and had an average return rate of 2.56 %. BTC could retrace its price in the next few weeks, due to a combination of weakening activity onchain, including falling transfer volumes and active addresses.
On Wednesday, however, the outlook might be re-evaluated. US White House will release its strategic crypto report on Wednesday. This could introduce the Bitcoin Reserve Framework, and include delta-neutral strategies for accumulation. These may boost spot ETFs and BTC Treasury building.
All eyes are also on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC), which meets this week. A rate cut may not be expected but it could have been priced in due to the neutral tone of July. Jerome Powell, Fed Chairperson could change the mood with dovish remarks. Powell’s hint at a possible rate cut for September could cause the markets to anticipate it, driving BTC above $123,000.
Related: Bitcoin analysts say this must happen for BTC price to hit new highs
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Source: cointelegraph.com
