The Bitcoin ETF market is booming, but derivatives markets are cautious.

The key takeaways

• Bitcoin futures are still displaying a high level of fear, despite recent gains towards $70,000. Futures premiums have been capped well below the neutral range.

• Markets’ caution stems from a general risk aversion, and concerns about institutional BTC liquidity and Bitcoin network safety.

BitcoinBTC( re-tested the $75,000 level on Wednesday after recovering from the low of $22,500 seen Tuesday. The inflows to Bitcoin ETFs stabilized the market but did not help restore the confidence of the BTC derivatives. The traders are still concerned about underlying issues that prevent a sustained rise to $75,000.

US-listed Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $764 million over the past two trading days. This partially offset the outflows of $1.2 billion seen in the eight previous days. The large fluctuations are usually attributable to institutional activity and indicate strong demand whenever prices fall below $65,000. 

In spite of this, appetite for BTC Futures leveraged bullish position has fallen sharply.

On Thursday, the annualized premium of Bitcoin futures over spot markets was 2%. This is well below 5% which has been considered neutral. The bullish trend has been absent for a long time, especially since the 31st of January when Bitcoin gave up the support level at $85,000 after holding on to it for nine months. Further, data on the options market indicates that professionals are prioritizing avoiding exposure to downside.

On Thursday, Bitcoin call options (buying) were traded at 14% more than equivalent put options (selling). In neutral markets, the indicator will typically range from -6% up to +6%. Fear is the dominant factor. This skew has decreased from 28% “panic” The rise to $70,000 on Tuesday hasn’t changed much the outlook of traders who are cautious about derivatives.

What is the single reason for Bitcoin’s recent price drop?

Unproven theories are being proposed recently to explain Bitcoin’s 32 percent decline in seven weeks. After the market crash of Oct. 10th, 2025 which eliminated 19 billion dollars in leveraged cryptocurrency positions, this downward trend was initiated. The volatility was accompanied by the announcement of a 100 percent increase in tariffs for Chinese imports from US President Donald Trump.

Binance compensated users for liquidations caused by internal oracle errors, system delays and degradation of asset transfers. Binance founder and former CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao was born in refuted allegations The exchange deliberately triggered the crash in October 2025.

The recent market bearishness has been attributed by other participants to concerns over quantum computing. The fears increased after Jefferies’ strategist Christopher Wood took Bitcoin out of his wallet. “Greed & Fear” model portfolio in January, citing potential risks to long-term security. Developers responded by drafting a BIP-360 proposal that focuses on the advancement of post-quantum encryption onchain.

Related: Coin Bureau CEO on Bitcoin in 2026–Cycles, Liquidity and a Divided Market

Bitcoin’s poor performance has been explained in a new way. quantitative trading company Jane Street. The claims gained momentum when Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator filed the company. He alleged insider trading in relation to transactions which accelerated Terra Luna’s ecosystem collapse by May 2022.

Jane Street revealed in its recent 13-F filing that it held significant positions in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF as well as various Bitcoin mining firms. Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant’s research department noted, however, that this type of activity was typical for delta neutral strategies. 

The 5% fall in Nvidia US shares after strong earnings on Thursday may indicate a risk-averse investor sentiment, and could explain to some extent why Bitcoin has struggled to regain $75,000.