Bitcoin (BTC), currently at $36,000 is 36% below its previous high. But one analyst says that BTC’s fourth bear-market has begun. “materially decoupled” Due to the inflow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and BTC corporate accumulation, this cycle is different from those that preceded it.
Bitcoin ETF flows, Treasury purchases and further downward movement may be limited by the Bitcoin ETF flow.
Bitcoin Bond Company’s CEO Pierre Rochard compared Bitcoin’s declines over previous market cycles, and that the current correction is different than past bear markets. The 2013–2015 cycle wiped out roughly 85% of Bitcoin’s value, while the 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 cycles saw declines of nearly 77% before the price bottomed.
Current dip is relatively small. Bitcoin dropped to $60,000, a 52% drop from its previous high of $126,000.
Pierre Rochard provides a Bitcoin pulldown analysis for different market cycles. Source:
Rochard explained how Bitcoin ETFs became a major source of demand during the past two-year period. US-listed Bitcoin ETFs on the spot have seen cumulative net flows of over $59 billion, with $4.5 billion in March alone.
Also, corporate Bitcoin purchases have increased. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings increased to 818.869 BTC, up from 640.031 BTC, in October 2025. That is almost 179,000 BTC. Its average purchase is about $75,543.
BTC strategy holdings Source: bitcointreasuries.net
According to Rochard ETF and corporate treasury companies are now consistently providing demand, which did not exist in the bear markets of 2018 and 2022.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe agreed that the current market environment no longer resembles the 2022 cycle. Van de Poppe said,
“The most overcrowded thesis right now is that Bitcoin makes a bear flag and that we’re going to bottom out in October ’26.”
Van de Poppe cited several factors as making this cycle unique, such as the new Nasdaq record high of 29,372 set on Monday, upcoming legislation on the CLARITY act, discussion around a Bitcoin strategic reserve and the appointment a new Federal Reserve Chair.
Related: Bitcoin funding rates turn positive: Is BTC rally to $85K next?
BTC starts to recover in retail
Moreno, Crypto Analyst noted Bitcoin flashed for the first time in recent times “early bull” Signal since March 2023 with CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle. By analyzing moving averages and price momentum, the indicator can determine if the market is heading towards a bullish (or bearish) phase.
Bitcoin bear market indicator. Source: CryptoQuant
MorenoDV stated that similar signals appeared before Bitcoin’s 1280% and 4611% rises in 2019. The latest signal needs to be confirmed by a higher price. MorenoDV stated:
“Several other market metrics are already showing signs of exhaustion. That makes this signal less clean than a classic early-cycle confirmation.”
Onchain data shows that investors of smaller size are also returning after a decline in activity throughout April. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. tracked The 30-day changes in Bitcoin transactions volume for wallets with a balance between $0 and $10,000. This is used as a measure of retail investor participation.
Bitcoin retail investor demand. Source: Axel Adler Jr
On April 5, the metric fell to -8.2% before returning into positive territory at the end of that month. On May 6, it reached 6.31% and then stayed near 4.38% until May 12. Bitcoin trades at $86,625.
Retail transfer volumes increased to $351 million, up from $336 millions in mid-April. Adler Jr. noted that activity is below the February level, where volumes were between $375 and $365 millions.
Cointelegraph reportedThere are signs of an early bull market.
Related: Strategy resumes Bitcoin acquisitions with $43M BTC buy
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Source: cointelegraph.com
