US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) day by day flows aren’t dependable guides to BTC’s subsequent transfer as traders are inclined to chase rallies and promote into slumps, in accordance with DWF Labs.
In a analysis report revealed Thursday, DWF discovered that traders pulled cash from the funds throughout seven of the eight instances Bitcoin’s value dropped not less than 15%. All 9 rallies of that dimension drew web inflows. The evaluation reviewed 694 buying and selling days relationship again to January 2024, when Bitcoin ETFs first launched within the US.
“ETF flows confirm moves; they don’t predict them,” DWF mentioned in its report. “The evidence points mostly to investors reacting to price, not driving it.”
Buyers tended to place cash into Bitcoin ETFs after costs rose and pull it out after costs fell. These flows provided nearly no clue as to whether Bitcoin would rise or fall over the following 5 days.
Every day’s ETF flows had a reasonable relationship with Bitcoin’s value modifications over the 5 buying and selling classes earlier than that day, with a correlation of 0.54. On a scale the place zero means no relationship, the correlation for the next 5 days was 0.03.
ETF outflows don’t present who offered
The heaviest withdrawals got here in the course of the two most up-to-date sell-offs. Buyers withdrew a web $6.9 billion between October 2025 and February 2026, adopted by $8.2 billion in the course of the Might–June decline.
The figures don’t present whether or not establishments or retail traders drove the promoting. DWF didn’t separate the 2 teams in its evaluation.
“We don’t have a clear split on the exact buyers/sellers of the ETFs,” a DWF Labs spokesperson advised Cointelegraph.
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Some ETF exercise additionally comes from traders shopping for fund shares whereas betting in opposition to Bitcoin by way of CME futures to earn the value hole between the 2 positions. DWF estimated that roughly a fifth of flows could have been hedged this manner, though its information couldn’t affirm that the identical traders held either side of the trades.
A CoinShares evaluation revealed in June discovered that skilled traders reduced their Bitcoin ETF exposure by 17% within the first quarter of 2026. Hedge funds and brokerages accounted for roughly 96% of the discount, whereas banks elevated their holdings.
Bitcoin’s sell-offs have slowed
Bitcoin has had about three sell-offs of 15% or extra a 12 months because the ETFs launched, in contrast with roughly 4 a 12 months in 2022–2023 and eight in 2021, the report discovered.
The declines have additionally turn into extra gradual, however the losses are nonetheless comparable. The median sell-off worn out 21.3%, in opposition to 19.4% in 2022–2023.
“The changes aren’t solely due to the ETF,” the spokesperson mentioned, noting that volatility and the frequency of sell-offs had been already declining earlier than the funds launched in 2024.
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Supply: cointelegraph.com
