Bitcoins to drop below $100k if Trump doesn’t do TACO

Takeaways from the conference: 

• Bitcoin is under pressure due to deteriorating US-China relationships, President Donald Trump’s recent increase in tariffs and traders who avoid long leverage. 

• Analysts are optimistic that the next macroeconomic event will reverse this downward trend.  

Bitcoins’ (BTCThe market is trying to rebalance itself after the sharp correction of last week, but the increasing headwinds caused by Trump’s renewed trade war with China as well as the US shutdown for the longest time in history are keeping bullish traders from taking new positions. 

The Coinbase Premium Index, spot cumulative volume (the difference between the market’s buys & sells), and Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows for both professional and retail investors have steadily trended upwards since Bitcoin traded at $107,000 in the exchange at 10 October. 

The chart shows how the dynamics of volume, funding and open interest have changed since the October 10th sell-off. US institutional and retail investors have been accumulating BTC in large quantities, while Binance traders of perpetual futures (red line), who are aggressive sellers, also have. 

The spot delta on Binance is higher than the futures volume (third panel), while the perps delta is lower. This confirms the belief that the perps driven selling reinforces the downward trend, and the demand from spot buyers at $107,000-$108,000 is strong. 

Below is an alternate expression. 

In light of Bitcoin’s possible price movements in the near-term, liquidation heatmaps (Binance by Bybit and BitMEX) suggest that momentum traders could chase liquidation clusters on longs between $106,300 – $104,000 while shorts are likely to be terminated at $115,000. 

Quinn Thompson is the Chief Investment officer at Lekker Capital. He believes that while prices may remain volatile for a short time, they will eventually stabilize. said: 

“10/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than the entire Jan-Apr ‘25 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ‘24.”  

Following in the same vein, macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital reminded Tradesmen “just trade the price action” The next few days are expected to be filled with action-packed events. 

You’ll have to deal with these stories over the coming week:
US CPI Release
Possible US government reopening
– Fed rate cut (future cuts)
– Nikkei topping at 50,000
– Top gold
TACO or No TACO

Or you could…

— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.