Bitcoins will drop under $100k if Trump does not TACO

The key takeaways 

• Bitcoin is under pressure due to deteriorating US-China relationships, President Donald Trump’s recent increase in tariffs and traders who avoid long leverage. 

• Analysts are optimistic that the next macroeconomic event will reverse this downward trend.  

Bitcoin (BTCThe market is trying to rebalance itself after the sharp correction of last week, but the increasing headwinds caused by Trump’s renewed trade war with China as well as the US shutdown for the longest time in history are keeping bullish traders from taking new positions. 

Since Bitcoin reached $107,000 on the Coinbase exchange, Oct. 10, the Coinbase Premium Index (net difference in market buys and sales), the Spot Cumulative Volume Delta and professional-sized and retail investors’ spot volume deltas have all been trending steadily upward. 

In the graph below you can see how volume deltas, funding dynamics, and the open interest dynamics have developed since the sell-off on October 10. US institutional and retail investors have accumulated BTC in large quantities, while Binance traders of perpetual futures (red line), who are aggressive sellers, also have. 

When comparing Binance’s spot volumes with its futures (third chart), the delta for the spot is positive. However, the delta for the perps is negative, which highlights the rise in short positions. These results confirm the idea that perps is driving the selling, reinforcing a downward trend. Meanwhile, the demand of spot buyers is continuing to be strong at between $107,000 and $108,000. 

This expression can be viewed in a different way. 

In light of Bitcoin’s possible price movements in the near-term, liquidation heatmaps (Binance by Bybit and BitMEX) suggest that momentum traders could chase liquidation clusters on long positions at $106,300 – $104,000 while shorts are likely to be terminated at $115,000. 

Quinn Thompson is the Chief Investment officer at Lekker Capital. He believes that while prices may remain rocky for a short time, they will eventually stabilize. said: 

“10/10 liquidation cleared more leverage in $ and % of OI than the entire Jan-Apr ‘25 period. Opportunity ahead is similar to pre-Trump victory ‘24.”  

Following in the same vein, macroeconomics-focused account Tom Capital reminded Traders “just trade the price action” The next few days are expected to be filled with actionable events. 

In the coming weeks, you will likely be required to follow these narratives.
US CPI Release
Possible US Government Reopening
– Fed rate cut (future cuts)
– Nikkei topping at 50,000
– Top gold
– Taco or No Taco (Trump imposed self-imposed 100% tariffs to China, etc.).

Or you could…

— Tom Capital (@Tom__Capital) October 21, 2025

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.