Bitcoin Hasn’t Had 20 Years

Youssef EL Maddarsi is the chief business officer at Naoris Protocol.

​Bitcoin (BTC( advocates) claim that Bitcoin is not at risk from quantum computers in the near future. This argument relies on the assumption that quantum computing will only be a threat once a machine can break keys real-time. It is risky to assume that the threat of quantum computing begins when a computer can crack keys in real time. Adam Back said that Bitcoin has at least 20-40 years to ready itselfThe quantum threat has already been active since today.

Bitcoin can’t rely on an upgrade that takes decades.

Several readers will object strongly to that, stating that the quantum timescales are too indefinite to warrant urgent action. They may also argue that alarming people could cause unnecessary fear. Complacency is not supported by the facts.

IBM announced a recent initiative made a major leap toward practical quantum computing With its new generation chips, the company claims that this processors’ faster error correction methods will enable it to achieve a quantum advantage in 2026. It also says they can deliver fault-tolerant early systems before 2029. The race has intensified.

Vitalik Buterin, at a conference in 2025 called Devconnect, said that quantum computers might be able break the elliptic curvature cryptography faster than was expected. This could even happen before the US presidential election of 2028. Vitalik Buterin advocated that Ethereum move to quantum-resistant encryption within a couple years. It is a contradiction to the narrative of some Bitcoin supporters, as it shows that Ethereum’s creator believes the quantum timeframe will be much closer than most people think.

​Quantum risks are already relevant to the market

Deloitte reported recently that approximately 4 million BTC, which represents around 25% of usable BTC supply, is held in addresses where public keys are exposed to attacks by quantum computers. Researchers have been warning for years about the possibility that using Shor’s algorithms, an attacker could instantly drain wallets if they had access to public keys.

Bitcoin is not the only one that does this. Quantum will change the way Ethereum, Bitcoin and other blockchains work. Buterin already has outlined Quantum computers are threatening to crack Ethereum accounts.

​It is important to note that the word “you” means “you”. “we can upgrade later” Arguments fail in practice

Bitcoin can’t be upgraded with a patch. It requires a fundamental overhaul of the protocol’s signature scheme. This is a major overhaul to the signature scheme of the protocol. According to researchers At the University of Kent upgrading Bitcoin to a cryptosystem that is quantum resistant could take up to 75-days of downtime. It may even require over 300 days of downtime if the network has to operate with reduced capacity in order to reduce attack vectors. The industry cannot accept a prolonged global outage that affects a trillion dollar asset class. “in time” fix.

Related: Quantum threat to Bitcoin extends past wallet hacks

The political realities of Bitcoin are another obstacle, even if the technical aspects were able to be migrated smoothly. Bitcoin’s culture of governance has a reputation for being resistant to changes, which is evident in the long debates and coordination needed for Taproot – despite it only being a modest upgrade. The mandatory migration of a high-value cryptographic base would cause ideological conflicts, chain splits, and uncertainty in the long term. This idea ignores Bitcoin’s adversarial dynamic with much simpler upgrades.

​The quantum timeline accelerates faster than expected. Recently, the European Commission and EU members states released A coordinated roadmap is being developed to move the digital infrastructure of the EU to Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC), in recognition of the threats that quantum computers present to current encryption. The plan sets a unified timeline: All member states must begin national PQC strategies and initial migration steps by 2026; critical infrastructure and other high-risk sectors must adopt quantum-resistant encryption by 2030; and, by 2035, the PQC transition should be completed for all systems that can feasibly be upgraded.​

A delayed transition can have a catastrophic effect on the market

This threat is particularly important for crypto because of the potential market impact of an incorrectly handled transition. If an attacker used quantum hardware to derive private keys They could use dormant Bitcoins to move millions inactive coins at once, flooding markets and driving prices down. Similarly, malicious quantum miners who are able to solve Bitcoin’s proof-of work puzzles could undermine decentralization and turn mining into an industry dominated by those with quantum equipment. This risk would change the market structure well before any hypothetical 20-40 year safe period.

It is essential to adopt post-quantum encryption, but not once adversaries have developed the hardware. NIST standards are not guarantees, they’re a road map. Transition will be long and contentious. It could also cause disruption. If we pretend it can be delayed for decades, then Bitcoin and the wider crypto ecosystem will face the biggest security threat of this century.

For 15 years, the crypto-industry has defended decentralization. Quantum computing poses a challenge to the crypto industry: will it take proactive action or do they need to wait until a crisis occurs before taking any steps? Costs of being incorrect are far higher than those of early preparation.

Bitcoin is a popular cryptocurrency. Many people believe that Bitcoin will be around for decades. Evidence suggests a completely different outcome: the quantum clock has already started ticking and that market participants are quietly making adjustments. Only time will tell if the industry can make a change before its deadline.

Youssef EL Maddarsi is the chief business officer at Naoris Protocol.

The opinion expressed in this article may not represent the opinions of Cointelegraph.com. Content has undergone an editorial review for clarity and relevancy. Cointelegraph is committed to providing transparent journalism and maintaining the highest standards in journalism. We encourage readers to research the company themselves before they take any action.