Bitcoin death cross still present despite rally to $86K — Should BTC traders be afraid?

On April 6, Bitcoin price formed a death cross on a daily chart — a technical pattern where the 50-day moving average (MA) falls below the 200-day MA. This signal is often associated with market declines and trend reversals.

This latest death cross is a result of growing macroeconomic insecurity. Stocks are in turmoil as they struggle to recover from the apparent early stages of tariff warfare. Volatility is on the rise, and investors continue to feel fearful. Bitcoin’s “death cross” could have been the last blow for some investors hoping to see a short-term rise. Early signs capitulation Short-term investors may be already emerging.

Some people still see the future as bleak.

Bitcoin death crosses history

Death crosses confirm the end of bullish phases by definition. If the 50-day MA falls below the 200 day MA, this indicates that recent price movement has been weaker than the long-term trend. Its counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the opposite happens — often heralding a new rally.

Bitcoin has been through 10 of these death crosses since its creation, and the 11th one is unfolding now. The dates and durations of each death cross provide a key insight. Every bear market had a death crossing, but not all death crossed led to a market. The key is to understand the current set-up.

Death crosses can be divided into two categories: those which occur in bear markets (2014-2015, 2018 and 2022) and others. Death crosses were formed by bear markets in 2014-2015 and 2018 as well as 2022. These death cross formations took a long time and caused a lot of pain. These death crosses were painful and lasted from 9 to 13 month. They saw a decline between 55% to 68% in value, starting on the date of the cross and ending at the bottom of the cycle.

These seven remaining cases were much milder. These periods lasted between 1.5 and 3.5 months, with Bitcoin falling anywhere from 27% all the way to nothing. Many times, these signals were local bottoms that led to new rallies.

Here’s the question that matters: Are we already in a bear-market for Bitcoin, or are we just being duped into another one?

What is a bearish sign?

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Joo says that Bitcoin has indeed entered bear territory. believesThe current death cross may indicate that prices will continue to fall for 6-12 months. The difference in market capitalization between now and when it was realized (average cost of each wallet multiplied by the amount of BTC) is consistent with this outlook.

“If Realized Cap is growing, but Market Cap is stagnant or falling, it means capital is flowing in, but prices aren’t rising—a classic bearish signal.”

Ki Young Ju adds that current data strongly suggests the former.

“Sell pressure could ease anytime, but historically, real reversals take at least six months—so a short-term rally seems unlikely.”

The death cross is ignored by other market participants. Crypto analyst Mister Crypto stated that the current death crosses is more of a setting for a rise than a fall. “The trap is set again. This will be the most hated rally of 2025!” He posted Alongside a graph showing false signals in the past of this cycle.

James Butterfill, the head of CoinShares’ research department, also played down its significance. As he said put it,

“For those of you that think the Bitcoin death cross means anything – empirically, it’s total nonsense, and in fact, often a good buying opportunity.” 

Butterfill’s data shows, that on average, Bitcoin is not much lower than it was one month before a cross of death (-3.2%), and can be higher up to three months.

Related: Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar

Bitcoin isn’t the only asset that flashes warning signals. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both on the verge of forming their own death crosses, while individual tech stocks — including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet — have already triggered them or are close to doing so. 

Bitcoin’s move recently is part of an overall market reset. At this time, though, the trend is more towards the “worse” Some analysts argue that the side of the coin is a misunderstanding point outWhat is bad for Nasdaq, tends to also be bad for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is not a currency. digital gold.

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.