Bitcoin’s momentum has weakened as the selling pressure increases. Analysts disagree on the next move. Some predict another correction, while others suggest that BTC could consolidate before making a decisive movement. It is a sign of the fragility between bullish market optimism and caution.
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Darkfost is a leading analyst who shared his insights on reviving a longstanding debate. Does Bitcoin still follow its traditional cycle structure? While opinions vary, one factor remains consistent across cycles—the influence of long-term holders. When BTC is moved from a dormant state, it can often trigger powerful pressure to sell, which still has the ability to shake markets. This cycle confirmed the pattern.
As BTC climbed to its all-time high earlier this year, Coin Days Destroyed (CDD)—a key on-chain metric tracking the movement of older coins—spiked noticeably. These spikes are usually associated with major tops or significant events. correctionsThis shows that holders of long-term positions continue to be influential in the direction of the market.
Value Days Destroyed Signals Potential Relief For Bitcoin
Darkfost believes that the Value Days Destroyed metric (VDD), which is similar to Coin Days Destroyed, provides important insights into Bitcoin’s current market structure. Much like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), VDD tracks This adjustment introduces the concept of weighted activity, which is based on price. The concept of “value destruction,” The weighting of long-term BTC holders who sell when BTC is at a higher price and the less weighting when BTC is lower. VDD is able to provide a much more nuanced image of older coins’ influence on the market.
VDD has recently hit a price of 2.4. This is a historical threshold that’s been associated with strong selling pressure. In previous cycles, this spike has often been associated with moments where long-term investors locked in their profits and contributed to sharp local corrections. Bitcoin reached its record high at the same time as this latest spike, a familiar pattern where dormant stock resurfaces when price peaks.
VDD, however, has been on a downward trend since then, and is now at levels that are similar to the ones seen in previous correction phases. The intensity of long-term sellers is decreasing, which suggests a calming in the selling. This trend may continue, and the market could find some relief from its persistent source of supply pressure.
In the end, the easing of VDD could be enough to set up a new upward trend, but demand will play a key role. Reduced selling pressure, without strong buyer inflows or renewed commitment from the buyers may not be sufficient to trigger a lasting rally. The moderation in long-term holders’ activity, however, is an encouraging sign that Bitcoin may stabilize before attempting to move higher again.
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Pricing Details: Price Increases Above $10K
Bitcoin currently trades at $112 286, indicating a modest recovery from the recent low of $123,217. The price was pushed down by weeks’ worth of pressure to sell. BTC’s chart shows it is still consolidated within a correctional structure. It has tested the mid-range of support and resistance.
The green line is close to where the price currently sits, which provides a pivot point in the near term. The 200-day average (red) at $101K is lower and can act as structural support in the event of a bearish trend.
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BTC has formed higher lows since its recent drop to $110K, indicating that buyers have cautiously returned. The chart indicates that the momentum is limited and that the market still hasn’t reclaimed any of the major resistance levels. A breakout above $115K would be needed to shift sentiment and open the way toward retesting the $120K–$123K zone.
Chart from TradingView, Featured Image from Dall E
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
