VanEck published a report today on Bitcoin’s long-term assumptions for the capital markets. The report projects strong growth in the coming decades, and outlines how institutional investors could use Bitcoin as part of diversified portfolios.
You can also find out more about the following: reportAccording to the base case scenario, Matthew Sigel’s VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research and Patrick Bush Senior Analyst model BTC at $2.9M per coin in 2050.
The CAGR is 15%. The model assumes BTC captures 5–10% of global trade This asset is a 2.5% reserve on the central bank’s balance sheets.
In 2050, Bitcoin will be worth $53.4 per coin.
VanEck provided an array of possible outcomes. In a conservative “bear” Scenario: Bitcoin only grows by 2% annually, reaching $130,000 for each coin.
The bullish “hyper-bitcoinization” The asset, which could reach $53.4m per coin under a scenario in which BTC accounts for 20% of world trade and 10% domestic GDP would theoretically grow at a rate of 29%.
This report highlights Bitcoin as an asset with low correlation that can be used in institutional portfolios.
VanEck recommends a 1–3% allocation for most diversified portfolios. Their analysis shows that allocations between 20% and 30% have historically maximized returns for investors with a higher tolerance to risk.
VanEck believes that BTC’s role has become more than just speculative. It may function as an reserve asset You can hedge against devaluation, especially as the developed markets are facing high debt.
“The risk of zero exposure to the most established non-sovereign reserve asset may now exceed the volatility risk of the position itself,” Notes on the Report
Research by the firm also covers volatility and market structures. Annualized BTC volatility is modeled at 40–70%, comparable to frontier equities or early-stage tech, though realized volatility recently hit multi-year lows near 27%.
VanEck attributes most of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations on a short-term basis to derivatives and futures rather than issues with fundamental adoption. VanEck also points out BTC’s historically low correlation with gold, stocks and bonds.
VanEck provides blockchain metrics for tactical investors such as Relative Unrealized Gain (RUP). As of December 31, 2025, Bitcoin’s RUP was 0.43 — mid-cycle — suggesting room for further gains before a market peak.
Futures rates are moderate, at 4,9%. This is below the levels which typically indicate market peaks.
VanEck simulations on portfolio impact show that small BTC allocations improve efficiency. In a traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolio, replacing 1–3% with Bitcoin increased the Sharpe Ratio, capturing the asset’s “convex return” If you want to reduce the risk, do not add proportional risks.
Their analysis shows that a 3% investment historically has produced the best return on risk per unit.
Bitcoin was worth $91,000 at the time this article was written.
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Source: bitcoinmagazine.com
