Charles Edwards is the founder and CEO at Capriole Investments. He has released his most stern warning on quantum computing. Edwards argues that Bitcoin will face an existential threat if it does not migrate quickly to post-quantum signings. “We need to upgrade Bitcoin to be Quantum proof next year. 2026. Otherwise we are fucked,” Edwards posted a message on X Monday morning. He escalated a series in which he argued. “Q-Day is this decade.”
Bitcoin Could Crash to Zero Dollars
Edwards’ thesis Shor’s algorithm is based on a rapid compression of the resource estimates needed to run it against Bitcoin’s digital signatures with elliptic curves (ECDSA/Schnorr using secp256k1). The skeptics are being pushed back. “handwave Quantum as being 20+ years away,” He claimed that only “~2,000 logical qubits” It may not be necessary to crack ECC-256 in a reasonable time frame, but a plausible attack is required. “2–6 years.” A separate conversation he had framed his stakes in blunt terms: “Do you want $1M Bitcoin in 5 years, or $0?”
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Edwards’ timeline closely tracks a fresh line of research and industry messaging from Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Démers, founder of Pauli Group, a startup focused on quantum-resistant money. In an August research preprint and public thread, Dallaire-Démers and co-authors introduced graded ECDLP challenges on Bitcoin’s curve and, after translating logical circuits to physical costs across several error-corrected architectures, placed “cryptanalytically relevant” ECC-256 attack in a “roughly 2027–2033” window—emphasizing wide error bars and sensitivity to hardware assumptions.
Pauli Group explains the bottom line in plain English: “The first attack on 256-bit ECC will plausibly happen between 2027–2033.” The company also made provocative statements via X “PQC BTC will go to $1M+ by 2030. ECC BTC won’t.”
The core risk vector is well-established: once a Bitcoin address reveals its public key on-chain—by spending from it or by using legacy formats that expose the key outright—a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could, in principle, derive the private key quickly enough to steal funds.
Industry teams and security researchers have observed that coins in exposed-key outputs are first in line. Coins behind hidden (unrevealed public key) hashes are more secure until they start moving. According to several analyses, a significant portion of BTC in circulation is stored as exposed-key outputs. This includes early BTC. “pay-to-pubkey” The era coin is often associated Satoshi. Edwards took a risk and claimed “Satoshi’s coins will be market dumped” Absent a migration.
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Not everyone agrees On the clock speed. According to some conservative estimates, millions of qubits with error correction are needed for fast ECDSA breaks. Standards bodies also have transition guidelines that assume a long runway.
In late 2024, material circulated in the NIST/PQ ecosystem sketched migrations away from vulnerable algorithms by roughly 2035—a horizon many security engineers view as realistic for broad IT systems, even if niche breakthroughs arrive sooner. The spread between “thousands” You can also read about “millions” Different error-correction methods, different assumptions regarding gate speeds, code distances, and fast algorithmic improvements are all factors that contribute to the logical qubits camps.
Edwards will be presenting at TOKEN2049 in this coming week. “DOUBLE THREAT: Quantum & the Treasury Bubble” on Wednesday, October 1 at 10:45 a.m. local time—positioning quantum compromise and a growing “Bitcoin Treasury BubbleThe two most important downside risks to BTC in the coming cycle are ” and “.
BTC is currently trading for $112,150.
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