Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Has Reached New Heights, Will BTC?

Takeaways from the conference:

• Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has reached the second-highest levels in 2025. This shows sustained US investors interest.

• Binance’s retail inflow percentage reached a two-year high, with a sharp increase in 0–1 BTC exchange deposits, hinting at active retail trading or profit-taking behavior.

• Bitcoin’s rise to $100,001 was driven not by new long positions but rather short liquidations.

Coinbase Bitcoin,BTC) Premium Index reached Its second highest value was achieved on Monday. This reflects a premium in BTC prices available on Coinbase as compared to Binance. This index is green and has been for the majority of June. It indicates that US investors have continued to buy. The index is in line with the positive trend. spot ETF flows Most of the month was spent as a student noted A 0.27 correlation between ETF flows and price rises suggests market optimism. 

CryptoQuant’s data indicates that Binance retail inflow percentage surged to the highest level it has seen in over two years. Bitcoin price decline. The Spent Output value Bands (SOVBs) of the exchange also show a dramatic increase in inflows.

With Binance dominating global retail trading volume compared to Coinbase, its user base’s behavior — potentially driven by lower entry barriers — could influence market trends. Onchain analyst Maartunn explained that, 

“These inflows suggest proactive behavior rather than passive accumulation. The move to deposit BTC on Binance typically signals an intention to trade, not to hold. While retail participants are often seen as lagging market movers, this time they may have been ahead of the curve.”

These two metrics give contrasting insight into the price of Bitcoin. Coinbase’s premium may indicate strong investor interest via ETFs.

In contrast, Binance’s high inflows could be a reflection of retail investors selling out for profit or to avoid losing money, which would contribute to downward pressure. A mixed scenario suggests caution to buyers. The premium may indicate potential undervaluation, but the corrections can be deeper if retail sales persist. 

Related: Bitcoin $105K ‘trend switch’ comes as Fed hints at July rate cut

Bitcoin short covering could cause a sudden move

Bitcoin hit $105,000 Monday. After forming a lower range around $98,300, it was a 6.7% gain. The rise in Bitcoin was however accompanied by a decline of open interest (OI) of 10%, which indicated that it was more likely the result from shorts covering than from new bullish positions. Trading against Bitcoin was likely liquidated, as $130m in short positions were wiped on June 23, which forced traders to purchase BTC. 

Amount of leveraged longs is increasing despite minimal growth in OI, which could be a sign that the market has reached its limit.

Bitcoin’s bullish trend will continue if there is a sustained volume of buying and an increase in OI. This would confirm new long positions. It is possible that a retest at the resistance of $108,500 will occur. Strong momentum could signal a long-term rally. 

In the opposite scenario, a negative outlook may emerge, especially if OIs are not supporting funding rates, which could indicate a reversal. If the price drops to $102,000, and volume declines, it could lead to a larger correction. This is especially true if sentiments turn bearish. As volatility continues to be evident in this month, the current rally for short-covering may turn into a bullish run or pullback. 

Related: Panther Metals up 21% after $5.4M Bitcoin play to buy minerals and gold

The information in this article does not constitute investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.