Bitcoin could still reach over $250,000. The increasing supply of fiat currency is the main catalyst that will drive the price of this world’s very first cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin’s (BTCThe US Federal Reserve may pivot towards a higher interest rate in 2025, which could boost price growth. quantitative easing (QE)When the Fed purchases bonds to reduce interest rates, and stimulate spending in difficult economic conditions.
“Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” Arthur Hayes is the co-founder and chief investment office of Maelstrom.
Hayes wrote a letter in the Substack of April 1. post:
“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.”
As of April 1, 2011, the Fed reduced its Treasury runoff limit to $5 billion a month, down from $25 billion. The runoff for mortgage-backed Securities (MBSs) was kept at 35 billion.
According to Jerome Powell, Fed chairperson, the Fed could allow MBSs to roll-off without replacement. The excess principal payments might then be reinvested in Treasurys. published By Reuters
“Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced,” Hayes, added
Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension
Others are looking at a Bitcoin top that is more conservative based upon BTC’s relationship with the global liquid index.
BTC will reach 132,000 BTC based upon the M2 growth in money supply. Source: Jamie Coutts
Money supply is growing. Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 Before the end of 2020, according to estimates Jamie Coutts Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision.
Related: Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to hit $110K before $76.5K — Arthur Hayes
Fed will “flood the market with dollars”
Hayes was “buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500,” His convictions in the crypto-market for the remainder of 2025. Capital deployment may increase or decrease based on how accurate his predictions are.
“I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars,” Hayes added:
“That allows Xi Jinping to instruct the PBOC to stop tightening monetary conditions onshore to defend the dollar-yuan exchange rate, which increases the net quantity of yuan.”
Many market participants are not as optimistic as the forecast. participants are betting On a Bitcoin top price that is lower for 2025.
Source: Polymarket
As per a recent survey, only 9% have bet that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by 2025. 60%, however, expect Bitcoin to rise to $110,000. PolymarketThe world’s largest prediction market is decentralized.
Bitcoin, and the global appetite for risk remains high. global tariff fears The US president Donald Trump is scheduled to announce tariffs on April 2nd.
“Long-term positioning remains intact, but near-term momentum appears tethered to unfolding macro headlines,” Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8
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Source: cointelegraph.com
