The key takeaways
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Inflows of stablecoins are similar to those seen following the collapses of LUNA (Luna) and FTX. This indicates a new accumulation of stablecoins and the possibility for a rally.
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Bitcoin is above $100,000 but the number of new users remains low. “HODL” The price of the stock is waiting to rise as a result of new demand.
BitcoinBTC() shows early signs of an upcoming rally but its price chart doesn’t attract much attention. Onchain data shows a “demand generation” The accumulation phase is similar to that seen following the Terra/LUNA collapse and the FTX bottom.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said The 30-day moving-average of stablecoin flows has fallen into the negative zone, creating the same “blue zones” Previously seen in 2022. Participants aren’t ready to sell. This indicates a return in meaningful demand amid suppressed volatilities. Adler said,
“If inflows remain at or surpass levels seen post-LUNA and FTX, it would strongly signal the launchpad of the next Bitcoin rally.”
The Bitcoin network is dominated by HODLs
BTC is trading above $100,000 but New UTXO 30 day SMA remains at 570,000. That’s roughly 40% lower activity than when BTC was trading between $60,000–$70,000 and far from the 850,000–1 million range that supported the 2024 bull run.
It is possible that the divergence in price indicates long-term coin holders have been locking them up and not moving. If new demand starts, prices could rise rapidly. Move past 700,000 in the New UTXO This metric signals that new participants have entered the market. This could indicate the start of retail and institution-driven bull phases if this metric climbs above 850,000.
Exchange Flow Multiple (EFM) supports this setup. It tracks BTC inflows from short to long term. These have fallen to a level that traditionally marks a phase of seller exhaustion where reduced sell-side liquidity sparks upward price momentum.
Whales are also reportedly mobilizing. Currently, 96% of exchange flow is made up by large transactions. This level has historically been associated with price increases. The entities can position coins strategically for redistribution at times of price increases.
Related: Record Q2, monthly close next? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
BTC Risk in Demand-supply Inequality Persists
Even though these structural signs are bullish, there remain short-term threats. Although these structural bullish signals are encouraging, there remain short-term risk. Apparent Demand The 30-day metric has been negative for the second time in two weeks, which indicates that there is not enough demand from new buyers to offset selling pressure by miners and long-term investors (LTHs). This imbalance could lead to a short-term correction.
Bitcoin’s move will depend on whether new demand is able to surpass residual selling in this mix of an environment characterized HODLing (holding onto bitcoins), seller exhaustion and early whale activities. If momentum stops near $110,000, a short-term corrective move could be followed by a broader upward trend.
Related: Bitcoin’s new all-time high now ‘inevitable’ as BTC price eyes liquidity at $109K
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Source: cointelegraph.com
