The key takeaways
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The patterns of Stablecoin inflows mirror those observed after the LUNA/FTX collapse. This indicates a new accumulation of stablecoins and the possibility for a rally.
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Bitcoin has a value of over $100,000. However, new user activity remains very low. “HODL” The price of the stock is waiting to rise as a result of new demand.
BitcoinBTC() shows early signs of an upcoming rally but its price chart doesn’t attract much attention. Onchain data shows a “demand generation” Both the Terra/LUNA crash and the FTX cycle bottom were marked by a similar accumulation pattern.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said The 30-day moving-average of stablecoin flows has fallen into the negative zone, creating the same “blue zones” Previously seen in 2022. It is possible that participants have not sold yet, and are waiting for volatility to return. Adler said,
“If inflows remain at or surpass levels seen post-LUNA and FTX, it would strongly signal the launchpad of the next Bitcoin rally.”
The Bitcoin network is dominated by HODLs
BTC’s price remains strong over $100,000. However, the New UTXO SMA 30-day, a proxy of new network activity is still near 570,000. That’s roughly 40% lower activity than when BTC was trading between $60,000–$70,000 and far from the 850,000–1 million range that supported the 2024 bull run.
It is possible that the divergence in price indicates long-term coin holders have been locking them up and not moving. If new demand starts, prices could rise rapidly. Move past 700,000. UTXO This metric signals that new participants have entered the market. This could indicate the start of retail and institution-driven bull phases if this metric climbs over 850,000.
This setup is supported by the Exchange Flow Multiple, tracking BTC short-term and long-term inflows. The Exchange Flow Multiple has fallen to a region that traditionally marks a phase of seller exhaustion, where decreased sell-side liquidity ignites upward price momentum.
While whales seem to be mobilising. Currently, large transactions account for 96% all the exchanges. This is a high level that has been historically linked to major price explosions. The entities can position coins strategically for redistribution at times of price increases.
Related: Record Q2, monthly close next? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
BTC Risk in Demand-supply Inequality Persists
These structural bullish signals are not without short-term risk. The Apparent Demand The 30-day metric has been negative for the second time in two weeks, which indicates that there is not enough demand from new buyers to offset selling pressure by miners and long-term investors (LTHs). This imbalance could lead to a short-term correction.
Bitcoin’s move will depend on whether new demand is able to surpass residual selling in this mix of an environment characterized HODLing (holding onto bitcoins), seller exhaustion and early whale activities. The broader trend could start with a correction if the momentum stagnates near critical resistance levels of $110,000.
Related: Bitcoin’s new all-time high now ‘inevitable’ as BTC price eyes liquidity at $109K
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Source: cointelegraph.com
