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Bitcoin Bulls Risk Getting Trapped at Six-Week Highs

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Bitcoin Forecast Hopes For 38% BTC Price Gains From The
Bitcoin Forecast Hopes For 38% BTC Price Gains From The

BitcoinBTCRisks turning the classic into an. “bull trap” The price will reject at strong opposition.

Important points

  • Bitcoin prices above $75,000 will see a flat Coinbase spot interest and a divergence in open interest.

  • The analysis says that the structural weakness could lead to a decline in economic growth.

  • If you push the limit to $80,000, it will not be considered a “push”. “challenging.”

BTC market lacks “spot buying support”

Research from the onchain Analytics Platform CryptoQuant The release on Tuesday warned that recent BTC prices may crash.

“The Bitcoin market is currently exposing a critical structural vulnerability as it transitions from a healthy spot-led regime to an overheated rally driven primarily by derivatives,” Easy On Chain contributed to a QuickTake post.

Several factors support the theory, including the Coinbase Premium Index — the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs. 

The index is still in negative territory despite BTC/USD reaching six-weeks highs. This indicates a lack US spot demand.

“In this absence of spot-buying support, we are witnessing an extreme decoupling between investor cohorts where smart money is tactically distributing its supply,” Easy On Chain continued.

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

MAC_D, a fellow CryptoQuant contributor, agreed and made a distinction between new investors and old.

“Recent on-chain data shows that OG investors are distributing, while new investors are entering the market, indicating a clear transfer of ownership,” The writer wrote in an separate Quicktake post.

However, the main issue is open interest (OI), as this shows a market that’s in precarious.

“On the 1-hour timeframe, a divergence between price and open interest is emerging. While the spot market shows strength, futures traders appear reluctant to take on additional risk,” MAC_D continued. 

“If this lack of bullish positioning in the futures market continues, the current move could turn into a bull trap.”

Bitcoin OI graph. Source: CryptoQuant

The Bitcoin price will rise. “challenging”

The following are some of the ways to get in touch with us. Cointelegraph reportedBitcoin has been under pressure to sell in the area of $70,000, which is also where old lows were from April 2025.

Related: $58K BTC price still in play? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Data from CoinGlass Price stalls at $75,000.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

So, market participants are able to remain unbiased when discussing a broadening of the recovery. 

He is a latest X analysisKeith Alan (cofounder of the trading resource Material Indicators) referred to moving average trendlines and proprietary trading instruments in order to place odds for a complete bull market recovery into perspective.

“Bulls are currently attempting to flip resistance at the Q2 2024 Timescape Level, and now psychological resistance at $75k is coming into focus. If bulls can push higher the next targets are at the Q2 2025 Timescape Levels at $78.3k and $82.5k,” He explained.

“The confluence between the moving averages, Timescapes Levels and the structure add strength to those levels, and there is a lot of ask liquidity laddered between here and there that will make that move challenging.”

BTC/USD one-week chart. Keith Alan/X

Mister crypto, the trader, has drawn comparisons between price movements today and from earlier in 2026BTC/USD made a bounce-back before breaking through the support.