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Bitcoin Bull Market Relies on Expiry of Options Worth $13.8 Billion

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The Silent Bitcoin Accumulation: Companies' Surprising 2025 Lead
The Silent Bitcoin Accumulation: Companies' Surprising 2025 Lead

Takeaways from the conference:

  • Bitcoin bears are likely to intensify their pressure as the expiration date approaches.

  • AI spending worries add to the turbulence, and investors are more risk-averse.

Bitcoins (Bitcoins): A total of 13.8 billion dollars.BTCOptions expire August 29, and many believe that this moment could decide whether the 9.7% correction marked the end of Bitcoin bull run, or if it was just a brief pause. Bitcoin’s drop from $112,100 to just $102,100 last Thursday was its biggest in six weeks. This accelerated the bearish trend ahead of expiration of monthly options.

Bullish Bitcoin Strategies ill-prepared for Bitcoin prices under $114,000

Call (buy) option open interest is $7.44 Billion, which is 17% more than put (sell). The actual result will depend on the Bitcoin price on August 29 at 8 am UTC. Deribit has 85% of the market, followed closely by CME and OKX.

Some bulls were overconfident, as some bets reached $125,000 and higher. This optimism quickly faded away after Bitcoin’s drop, and momentum began to shift towards put instruments. The recent BTC correction is likely to disappoint traders who chose bullish strategies.

Deribit open options for BTC on Aug. 29. Source: Deribit

Just 12% call options Most of the puts were at or below $115,000, which leaves them out-of-the money at present levels. Contrastingly, 21% are put at $115,000 and higher with clusters of significant puts at $112,000. Therefore, it’s only natural for bears to keep pushing down the price of Bitcoin ahead of monthly expiration.

Perhaps it is too soon to write off bullish options strategies. Investors will closely monitor comments made by US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell Friday. odds of rate cuts Could support asset values. The US unemployment claims numbers on Thursday were higher than expected, adding to the macroeconomic uncertainty.

Related: Why is Bitcoin crashing and will $112K be the final bottom?

Bitcoin could be influenced by the US Federal Reserve, tech stocks and stock prices

Here are five possible scenarios at Deribit, based on the current prices. The results are based on theoretical profit estimates based upon open interest imbalances, but do not include complex strategies such as the sale of put options in order to increase price exposure.

  • From $105,000 to $110,000 Calls (buy): $210,000,000 vs. puts (2,66 billion). Net result is $2.45 Billion in favor of the puts.

  • From $110,100 to $114,000 The put side of the equation is $1.5 billion more favorable than $420 million.

  • From $114.100 to $116,000 Calls worth $795 millions versus puts of $1.15 Billion, a $360 Milliard difference favors puts.

  • From $116.100 to $118,000 The calls won by 460 millions dollars.

  • The range between $118.100 and $120,000 is: The calls are $1.1bn to $560m, which is a difference of $1.7bn.

Bitcoin’s price would have to be above $116,000 on August 29, in order for bullish strategies gain momentum. The most important battle is at $114,000 where the bears have the greatest motivation to drive prices down. 

Bitcoin’s fate at the expiration of the monthly option contracts worth $13.8 billion will ultimately depend on macroeconomic factors, such as investors’ unease with Bitcoin. artificial intelligence sector. Morgan Stanley: Deepening concerns warned Stock markets are more cautious because of the possibility that major tech companies will be unable to buy back shares due to soaring expenditure.

This is only a general article and not intended as investment or legal advice. These are solely the opinions, views, and thoughts of the author and may not reflect the opinions and views of Cointelegraph.