Bitcoin Breakout Is A Trap—Analyst Predicts Pain Before $160,000

Bitcoin may be breaking out—but don’t celebrate yet. Cristian Chifoi says that this current movement is likely a deceptive set-up to catch bullish investors before Bitcoin surges up towards $160,000. In his most recent YouTube video, titled “Bitcoin is breaking out! But why is it bad?”Chifoi shatters the illusion of optimism that has surrounded Bitcoin’s recent rise in price. He argues that the rally was a false one, intended to fool people.

You Can’t Trust the Bitcoin Pump

“From a technical standpoint, this could mean a real breakout, retest, and then continuation,” Chifoi admits. “But in my opinion, this is a false breakout which can get to a new shallow all-time high, maybe $113,000, maybe $120,000 until something like July 10 to 12—then we come back in this channel before July 20.” Bitcoin is central to his thesis seasonality, a pattern he has explored in earlier videosThe real pivot in macroeconomics will come later in the calendar month. “I’m more bullish from July 20 into the start of September,” “He says”

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Chifoi claims that retail traders will likely pile into the breakout phase retest, only to get shaken out when market makers reverse the trend. “The majority of retail traders would go long here on a retest. The market makers will get their money,” He warns that a trap could bring Bitcoin to near-$97,000 levels before a real uptrend returns.

The analysis goes far beyond technical issues. Chifoi focuses on macroeconomic sentiment. Fed policy as crucial context, particularly emphasizing that rate cuts would actually be a bearish signal—not bullish as commonly believed. “Rate cuts this year would not be bullish at all,” He insists. “It’s not Powell who decides, it’s the bond market who decides when the rate cuts should come… and when that is happening, it’s because they need to panic cut.”

Chifoi says that for the bulls, it is best to not reduce rates at this time. “Just keep the rates at 4.5% maybe until year end. If this happens, I’m 100% sure that the market will go higher and higher before this starts to happen.”

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Chifoi predicts that the wider crypto market will follow suit once the pivot on July 20 takes place. He highlights Ethereum and XRP as possible beneficiaries, as well as DeFi Tokens, such as CRV and ISO-compliant Coins, like IOTA and ADA. “Bitcoin would drag all the crypto space with it,” He adds that players older than Filecoin or Polkadot may also be able to catch a bidding.

The Mid-Term Price Goal

Chifoi, looking further into the future, describes this period as an a “stablecoin super cycle,” With DeFi’s yield-generating projects, you are well positioned to take advantage of Wall Streets appetite for yield. “In crypto, only DeFi projects get you yields,” He says: “Wall Street “It’s boiling for the yields”

The transition from fiat to gold in the 1930s is compared to his current macro-thesis. “After 100 years of this exact system, this should be replaced by another system with liquidity in it,” He says he envisions a future of cryptographic banking.

Chifoi, who expects short-term turmoil in the market, remains bullish for the long-term. His price target of $160,000 for Bitcoin by early September reflects a belief in accelerated expansion—fueled by seasonality, delayed policy pivots, and broader adoption.

Chifoi closes out by reminding the audience to zoom in and trust high timeframe signals. In referring to Bollinger Bands, Chifoi notes a similar expansion in late 2020. “After that, the bear market begins,” He cautions. But until then, the ride could be fast—and extremely volatile.

“The next time we cut [rates], it is a big deal and something is wrong,” Then he concluded. “For now, we just want the cuts going higher for longer.”

BTC was trading at $108,848 as of the time this article went to press.

Featured image was created with DALL.E chart by TradingView.com