What Will Bitcoin Price Be After Trump’s Tariffs Pause? What to Expect

Bitcoin gained more than 8 percent on Wednesday to reach an all-time high of $83,588 after President Donald Trump announced a 90 day pause in new reciprocal duties for 75 nations, except China. Analysts and investors saw the announcement as a sign of relief. It reflected the hope that the rapidly escalating tariffs might at least temporarily abate. Trump also increased the tariffs on China from 5% to 125%. This shows that trade war between two of the largest economies in the world is far from over.

Trump’s decision halt most of his recently announced tariffs is tied to concerns over disruptive shifts in the bond market. After the announcement of the tariff freeze, yields on Treasury 10-year notes, previously at a record high for seven weeks, continued to rise. The tariff increase on China was a stark reminder of the ongoing impasse, even though it provided temporary relief to many nations. This suggests that global markets are still uncertain. According to some analysts, the global markets are still in a state of uncertainty. surge of risk assetsBitcoin and other digital currencies are influenced by the changing expectation of future transactions.

Bitcoin’s price is not reflected by a potential China deal

Joe McCann is the founder, CEO and CIO of Asymmetric Crypto Fund. He also manages it alone. voiced His perspective on X is that the market originally priced in tariffs for China and EU, as well as the whole world. But now, it only prices China.

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He stated that Beijing’s deal remains unpriced. Therefore, if there is a breakthrough, the market will react. “explodes” higher. “Market was priced for China, EU and everyone else getting tariffed. Market now pricing only China. Market not pricing a China deal,” McCann remarks.

The author also states that “the explosion on the long end is risk parity pods blowing up,” Referencing abrupt market moves in bonds of long-term duration. McCann compares today’s market environment to the bottom of the COVID era, when funds began to increase their positions while short sellers covered. He highlights that the strengthening of the yuan against the dollar could mean that China is willing to negotiate. This would suggest that the equity and cryptocurrency markets are trading at too low levels.

“But today, long only funds re-grossed and shorts covered.Trump has signaled max pain for China and is willing to negotiate. Market can only re-price higher. If the Yuan rallies against the Dollar tonight, that is likely a sign China wants to negotiate, which means the market is mispriced (too low). UST 30Y auction tomorrow should see further indirect bids – same story as today,” McCann writes.

“Not Out Of The Woods Yet”

Jeff Park is the Head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise. cautioned He noted on X the fragile environment, noting that weakened yuan dynamic, a 10-year yield still above 4% as well as ongoing credit worries at spreads exceeding 400 basis point remain potential headwinds. He said that “[this] will be an unpopular opinion […] we are out the woods yet […] the net outcome is still negative for risk assets,” If the Federal Reserve fails to cut rates, as was expected by many analysts.

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He said that the lack of support from the monetary system is one factor which amplifies volatile markets. “If anything its actually more concerning how little liquidity is in the market to experience casino swings like this,” He writes to X.

Adam Yoder is a user of X who agrees with this. “bonds still went up today, gold went up,” Park concurred, suggesting that there is still sufficient safe-haven flow to make traditional investors cautious about riskier investments. Park agreed, saying “this is actually kind of a horrible move” The White House has left China with the responsibility of the partial pause, causing confusion and misunderstanding.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, has reversed course on its original call. withdrew After the 90-day break, a newly announced recession baseline was confirmed. Its revised outlook, published by Jan Hatzius, maintains that total tariffs—both the existing 10% and anticipated sector-specific rates of 25%—will still be implemented, but that the market has been spared an immediate global escalation.

Goldman returns to the previous baseline non-recession forecast, which was 0.5% GDP Q4/Q4 growth in 2025. It also includes a recession probability of 45% and three consecutive 25 basis-point increases. “insurance” cuts by the Federal Reserve iIn June, July and September. According to the report, “we continue to expect additional sector-specific tariffs” Goldman initially predicted a rate increase of 15 percentage points.

All Eyes On Today’s CPI Release

Notably, today, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March 2025 is scheduled to be released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) at 8:30 ET – a big report for the market which could be crucial for BTC’s next move.

CPI in February 2025 was up 2.8% year over year (not adjusted for season), and 0.2% month over month (adjusted for seasonality). The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 3.1% year-over-year. The headline CPI rate was down slightly from the 3.0% YoY figure in January, indicating a trend of gradual deflation.

The March CPI is expected to fall by 2.5% or more YoY. However, some analysts suggest it could drop even lower, to 2.6%, if the trend in rents and housing costs continues to decrease. It is expected that the Core CPI hovers around 3.0%- 3.1% YoY due to persistent pressures from service and shelter prices.

BTC was trading at $81,438 as of the time this article went to press.

Featured image was created with DALL.E chart by TradingView.com