Bitcoin fell 14% over seven days to levels last seen in February. A convergence of institutional withdrawals, leveraged liquidations, political pressure and a shocking sale by Strategy roiled digital asset markets.
Yet Standard Chartered’s global Head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told clients the bear market may be in its final stages — and that the low is “almost in.”
“I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k… we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” he wrote.
Bitcoin traded around $63,739 on Wednesday, down from a 24-hour high of $67,416.50, after touching a session low near $61,463 — the first time it breached that threshold since the February crash. BTC is now 51% lower than its previous all-time record of $126,277 set in October 20,25.
You can also find out more about the following: trigger SEC’s filing from Monday blew the market away. Strategy announced the sale between May 26 to May 31 of 32 Bitcoins, generating $2.5 million in revenue at an average cost of $77.135.
The transaction represented the firm’s first net reduction of its Bitcoin holdings in years — a break from co-founder Michael Saylor’s well-known “never sell” Position. The proceeds from the sale were used to pay dividends on Strategy STRC’s preferred STRC shares which have an annual variable dividend rate of 11.5%.
The reaction of the market was rapid. Bitcoin dropped below $72,000 on the day of the SEC filing. Strategy’s shares dropped by around 6%. STRC stock traded for $94 and STRC stocks fell near 6%.
U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are recording a 13 consecutive day streak of net outflows — the longest run since the products launched in early 2024. Total withdrawals amounted to approximately $3.45 billion during that time span. In the week of May 29, there was a net withdrawal of $1.42 Billion, which is third highest weekly withdrawal in history.
In May alone, spot ETF withdrawals totaled $2.30 Billion, the highest monthly outflow since 2026.
Kendrick’s Three Bitcoin Pillars
Kendrick explained three of the reasons that he feels like the market may be nearing a ceiling.
As a first example, the behavior of Strategy from 2022 provides a precedent. In December, the company bought back more Bitcoins than they sold. Kendrick said he expects the same pattern to repeat — with a potential buyback of up to 100 times the 32 BTC sold.
He believes that a purchase confirmed as soon as Monday next week would be an early indication of the current low.
Second, the spot ETFs held by investors have fared better than anticipated. The cumulative net inflow since inception remains at $54.2 billion — right where it stood earlier in the year. Total BTC owned by 11 U.S. funds is approximately 674,000 BTC. It’s down from its peak around 682,000 BTC. However, the fund structure remains largely unchanged.
“This tells me that ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February,” Kendrick said.
Thirdly, there is a smaller pool of leveraged shorts to be liquidated than prior drawsdowns. Bitcoin futures betting worth $1.5bn was liquidated during the recent sell-off by exchanges, which is similar to January.
Forced selling has decreased due to BTC’s underperformance of equities until 2026.
Macro Headwinds Persist
Kendrick’s long-term Bitcoin target remains $100,000 by the end of this year.
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Source: bitcoinmagazine.com
