Bitcoin Bears Shaken—Analyst Says Local Bottom 90% Likely Set

Bitcoin’s current recovery off the low of $107,200 has renewed the debate on whether the local market bottom has been reached and the price is poised to move higher. Independent analyst Astronomer has argued that it is likely to be higher. “90%+” Price structure and his repeated purchases are both cited as evidence that the lowest price is now in place. “FOMC reversal confluence” As a confirmation, you can use the framework.

Analysts claim 90% chance that Bitcoin bottom is in

Astronomer, who publicly documented his short-term bearish call from $123,000 down to the $110,000–$111,000 zone, revealed That he turned long after the target had been reached at late August. “Alright, as if the confluences of my confidence in the bottom being in the $110k area at the end of August weren’t strong enough … there now is another confluence lining up,” He wrote. He wrote that the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting cycle The Bitcoin trend has always been a major turning point.

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He explained: “The FOMC meeting data reverses the ongoing trend at minimum 0 bars (on the date), or 6 bars at most before the date, and it has done that correctly 90%+ of the times. The few times it hasn’t, was because our quarterly long took over (which has more power).” Astronomer claims that in practice the markets are the ones who set the direction of the post-FOMC before the retail market has digested the results.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled on September 18. He believes that the downward trend from $123,000 down to $110,000 is already over. “Now with FOMC coming up … the low is likely already planted, and the trend reversed to up again,” He said.

The analyst compared his method with that of the wider crypto-commentary ecosystem where many commentators continue to foresee further downfall and continued volatility. “red September.” He called such views “utter nonsense” Seasonality is a surface level phenomenon. “Every time it does work, it plants its bottom before the actual meeting to front run the anticipation … insiders already have set the post FOMC price direction, regardless of the outcome,” He wrote that generics are not the best option, and he stressed this in his letter. “be careful” The warnings that are issued ahead of events at the central banks misses structural changes.

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Astronomer has declared that after his entry of $110,000 Bitcoin is now above $115,000 September’s bearish thesis The validity of this article has already expired. ” September will close green. Yup, Septembears officially 6% in the wrong now. As September opened at 108,299, and price is now at 115,000. That puts September in the upper historical quartile of how green it is at the moment,” He made a note.

Further, he pointed out that in the past two years September has no longer been regarded as being a seasonal weak month. “A certain month indeed doesn’t have to be green. ‘Seasonality’ is just a cookie cutter version of properly using cycles. Look at last two years, September has also been green and mean to the bears,” He has written.

It is obvious that Astronomer’s conclusion: “When many confluences point in the same direction, it usually means you have solved the rubik’s cube correctly and so can confidently believe.” Yet, he tempers his conviction with discipline in risk management, saying: “Of course, I could always be wrong, although it has been a long time we lost a trade, never go all in. Take a decent size risk and sleep sound.”

Bitcoins above $115,000 are now worth more than ever. the FOMC meeting days awayThe near-term market verdict as to whether or not a stable bottom has been formed could arrive sooner.

Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com