Bitcoin Fights to Find a Bullish Trend in the Face of Venezuela Volatility

BitcoinBTCGeopolitics has sparked the world’s assets to make their first move back in several months.

• After a near-month long absence, Bitcoin’s price has returned to nearly $93,000. However traders remain skeptical.

• The four-hour chart is about to show a golden cross, which will pave the way for more market strength.

• The main focus of risk assets traders is Venezuela this week.

• As expectations for a Fed rate reduction this month diminish, the US Labor-Market data will be released.

• The Bitcoin Whales continue to be active sellers and will increase their distribution in the New Year.

Next Bitcoin price break or something below $80,000?

Bitcoin’s price has finally given bulls some comfort this week. geopolitical events — will it last?

This question is attracting serious interest from commentators and traders as BTC/USD has hit $93,000 for first time since December 11,

Data about TradingView Bitcoin is up 6.6% in just the last 5 days.

“Price will unlikely recover straight from here,” CrypNuevo, a trader in the a thread on X.

CrypNuevo has compared current price movements to those of October 2019 and predicted that price will continue to seek liquidity near the exchange order book.

“The structure is identical and price did a liquidity run before sweeping the lows, and then pumped,” He went on. 

“I think we’ll sweep the lows with or without the liquidity run.”

It would be the first drop under $80,000 since last April. The two ways to go down “gaps” CME Group’s Bitcoin derivatives market could provide initial targets.

“Two CME gaps are sitting below price at $90,500–$91,600 and $88,200–$88,800,” Bitcoin education resource Coin Bureau confirmed.

According to the latest information from CoinGlass, 24-hour liquidations of crypto shorts totaled $250 million. In the week-end close, liquidity was high. $93,700 would be bulls next upward target.

Keith Alan, the cofounder and CEO of trading platform Material Indicators remarked that he saw more price movement next after analyzing data.

The following are some of the ways to get in touch with each other “wall” There is now no limit on the number of orders to sell, previously set at $100,000.

“Now the fun begins,” Alan told X supporters, with a graph showing an increase in buying by smaller Bitcoin whales.

Bitcoin golden cross in close-up

The trend implications of a 5% BTC price increase may seem modest by crypto market standards.

Bitcoin bulls should be encouraged by the exponential and simple moving averages (EMA).

Bitcoin trades above its 200-hour moving average for the first since November 2014, when it was $114k.

The bulls have achieved a great deal.

As long as the price is above MA.

I will be watching… pic.twitter.com/ntM9nlRO2a

— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) January 3, 2026

A bullish trend is being played out by the crossing of the 50-period SMA above its 200-period counterpart on the four day chart. It’s a bullish phenomenon. The 50-period SMA crossing above the 200-period equivalent on the four day chart. “golden cross” This would reverse the momentum and indicate a low-timeframe purchase. “death cross” From mid-October.

The daily chart shows that a gold cross has not yet become a reality. own death cross Hit a month after.

SuperBro, a trader with a long-term view, notes another pair of trendlines that has already turned green. These are the 100-period SMA (standard moving average) and EMA.

The 100-week EMA crossed below the SMA 100-weeks at the beginning of previous Bitcoin bear markets. But 2026 has proven to be different.

“Historically, the weekly 100 EMA and SMA cross deep in the bear. Each prior cycle saw a 50%+ crash to the cycle bottom within weeks,” SuperBro wrote On X.

“This is an unprecedented bullish deviation from prior cycles.”

Cointelegraph reports that Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has increased claims of the BTC four-year price cycle being false. no longer valid.

Venezuela dictates market moves

The markets have been focused this week on the risk assets and commodity market as they respond to US’s military intervention in Venezuela.

You can also find out more about the following: surprise headlines Over the weekend, TradFi was closed and crypto became the only way to get a real-time reaction.

Crypto market capitalization has increased by 5 percent since last Friday and has reclaimed the $3 trillion level.

The return of the dollar to its former position as a safe haven asset, gold and Silver is particularly noticeable.

At the time this article was written, XAU/USD had risen by 2%, moving towards a matchup with December’s record high of $4450 an ounce.

As a result of the potential US takeover, global oil prices fell, and the US Dollar strength reached its highest point in over a week.

The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource on Sunday predicted All assets would be considered as an asset “move” TradFi traders are returning. 

“Energy prices are DROPPING amid a major escalation in geopolitical tensions. This should tell you all you need to know,” It is a good idea to get a hold of someone else. continued If you want to know more about X.

Kobeissi told Readers “keep watching” Gold and Silver

Venezuelan BTC reserves are a possible bull factor, which is now causing a lot of debate in social media.

Although speculation is still rampant, it’s believed that the country has amassed an impressive Bitcoin stockpile to avoid US sanctions. Around 600,000-660,000 BTC are circulating (between $55 billion and $60 billion).

“Prior to 2026, Venezuela’s official/on-chain holdings were minimal (e.g., ~240 BTC from seizures/mining reported in some trackers),” MartyParty is a crypto analyst and commentator. X post Topics to consider 

“The $60B figure refers specifically to this alleged off-the-books reserve built to bypass sanctions.”

Fed to maintain interest rates for January

Risk-asset sentiment will be impacted by the release of important US macroeconomic statistics during the first trading week in 2026.

⚡️ The Key Events of This Week

Monday – Market response to Venezuela developments

Tuesday, December ISM Manufacturing data

Wednesday – December ADP Nonfarm Employment data, November JOLTS Job Openings data

Friday – December Jobs Report, January MI Consumer Sentiment… pic.twitter.com/SDuBtI6wlT

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) January 5, 2026

This year’s focus is on trends in employment, and the figures come at a period when the job market remains stressed.

It has implications for Federal Reserve which will decide interest rates at their meeting on Jan. 28, 2019. Another cut in risk assets would be welcomed, but the sentiment is not supportive.

CME Group: Latest data FedWatch Tool Probabilities of even a minimal cut of 0.25 % are just 17.2 %.

In spite of this, analysts believe that the already lax financial conditions will continue to be supportive for stocks at least through the first half year.

“I anticipate conditions favoring the bull market to persist into the start of 2026, including a growing economy and ample liquidity supporting loose financial conditions.” The latest issue of Mosaic Asset Company’s regular newsletter explains the trading resource. The Market Mosaic.

Mosaic warns that inflation could reappear in the second half 2026, causing the situation to be very different.

“I believe a major transition will be looming for the stock market, and that a rising money supply will eventually force tighter monetary policy in the world’s major economies,” You can write.

The following are some of the ways to get in touch with us. Cointelegraph reportedThe composition of the Fed is continuing to tilt in favor of those officials that support further rate reductions, which President Donald Trump has requested.

Whales are hit by the “sell” Click here to learn more about the button

Bitcoin’s recovery from below $90,000.000 is not going to be easy, purely due to the crypto-market forces.

Related: Kain Warwick loses $50K ETH bet, BitMine’s ‘1000x’ share plan: Hodler’s Digest, Dec. 21 – Jan. 3

New data CryptoQuant, an onchain analysis platform, shows that traders with high volumes are looking to reduce BTC exposure and lock in small profits.

Binance’s largest exchange saw a monthly record of net inflows, and the BTC total alone was near $1.5 billion.

“Such sizable transfers of BTC and ETH from private wallets to an exchange typically indicate one of two intentions: preparation for selling or the use of these assets as collateral in derivatives markets,” CryptoOnchain, a contributor to the article, wrote: Quicktake blog post.

CryptoQuant warns that stablecoins netflows are not matching up with the buying power. “essentially flat.”

“Most of this activity reflected internal shifts — primarily USDT moving between the ERC-20 and TRC-20 networks — rather than fresh capital entering the exchange,” CryptoOnchain has been added.

The following are some of the ways to get in touch with each other further QuickTake post The whale trading activity across the exchanges has been revealed.

It is the highest it has been since March 2025. 

“Historically, such movements are a precursor to selling and increased supply pressure,” CryptoOnchain stated that.

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making their decisions. Cointelegraph, while striving to give accurate information and in a timely manner, does not guarantee accuracy, completeness or reliability. This article might contain risky and uncertain forward-looking statements. Cointelegraph is not responsible for loss or damages resulting from your reliance upon this information.