Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin price trades 6% below all-time highs, but several market signals suggest more upside ahead.
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Bitcoin could be on the verge of a breakthrough to new highs, if $108,000 becomes a major resistance.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has rebounded 10% since June 5, reaching near-all-time highs at $110,800 on June 9. Meanwhile, analysts say declining open interest and “liquidation exhaustion” suggest that BTC price is primed for the next move.
OI divergence is it bullish to Bitcoin’s price?
Onchain data reveals a notable divergence between Bitcoin’s price and Binance open interest (OI), showing progressive deleveraging across the derivatives market.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance OI, which is a measure of the price on Binance’s exchange platform, failed to achieve its prior peak at the end of May. Bitcoin was only 1.3% away from its record high. This metric has instead recorded a series lower lows as can be seen in the graph below.
Similarly, the Binance Liquidation Delta chart highlights a sharp liquidation cluster around $104,000, where long positions were forcefully closed when the price dipped below this level on June 13.
Related: Bitcoiners split on $94K or $114K for BTC’s next move as it trades sideways
The market correction, triggered by Israel’s attack on Iran, saw over $453 billion in long Bitcoin liquidated against $59.8 million short positions.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, this reflects “cleansing of latecomers chasing the rally,” which coincides with the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.
“This macroeconomic signal often acts as a tailwind for risk-on assets like Bitcoin,” Amr Taha said in a June 19 QuickTake, adding:
‘Historically, BTC has shown bullish tendencies following rate stabilization, especially when paired with signs of liquidation exhaustion and fading open interest.”
Another significant observation is the position of Bitcoin’s market value realized value (MVRV) around its mean.
“The Bitcoin Short-Term Holder MVRV has returned to the mean despite price nearing all-time highs,” said Bitcoin analyst On-Chain College in a June 20 post on X, adding:
“The market has reset and looks primed for the next move.”
What next Bitcoin price?
Bitcoin price remained range-bound on Thursday below $105,000, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
“Bitcoin trending back upward, which is a great sign,” said MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe in a June 20 post on X.
An accompanying chart showed a key resistance zone at $108,000, which BTC bulls needed to break to trigger an upward movement.
“Facing the crucial resistance zone, through which we’re about to hit a new all-time high once we break through this resistance zone.”
As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price is expected to exit its narrow range between $103,000 and $109,00 this month in a move that would usher it into price discovery.
Although several analysts believe Bitcoin will go above $120,000 this summer, the odds of this happening before July stand at only 16%, according to Polymarket data.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
