Markus Thielen is the head of 10x research and says that there are no numbers to support this prediction.
“It’s mathematically impossible,” Thielen told Cointelegraph about Trade Secrets that Bitcoin’s capital inflows for the last 15 years are far below the $1 million it needs to achieve over the next 4 years. “We have seen $1 trillion US dollars of inflow to bring the market cap really to $1 trillion. To $1 million [per] Bitcoin. It’s 15x, I think, from here,” Thielen says.
Bitcoin was trading at $63,868 as of the date this article is published. The market cap for Bitcoin stands around $1.28 Trillion. according CoinMarketCap is a great place to start.
Thielen calculates that Bitcoin needs to draw another $15 trillion dollars in capital before it can reach $1 million per Bitcoin. It is roughly equivalent to 25% of US stock markets’ total value being poured into Bitcoin in the next four-year period.
“It would require trillions,” Thielen
“It takes trillions and trillions of dollars to move the price really materially higher, and that’s why we are not as bullish as those arguments which we think are totally mathematically unrealistic because it would require trillions,” Thielen says.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen by 2.35 percent in the past thirty days. (CoinMarketCap)
Thielen claims that as Bitcoin price increases, retail sentiment weakens, in part due to investor psychology, which wants to have a complete unit.
“I think a lot of people kind of wondered, maybe I should just rather buy a new car than buy one Bitcoin, or should I really work a whole year for just one Bitcoin?” Thielen says. “People don’t want to buy a tenth or a hundredth of a Bitcoin; they want to buy a whole Bitcoin. You don’t want to buy a fraction of a painting.”
“Satoshis doesn’t really sound as interesting as Bitcoin,” Thielen says.
Bitcoiners are warned not to just expect Bitcoin to bounce back as it did in previous cycles. In fact, the all-time record high of $126,000 may not return as soon as investors think.
“Usually, it takes some time because we are at a higher market cap, and that usually takes a lot of money to push the Bitcoin price higher. So I wouldn’t argue that next year we’re gonna see new highs. If we go back to, let’s say, $100K, that would already be, I think, a big, big achievement,” Thielen says.
Reputable industry executives have claimed that Bitcoin is worth $1 million
Among the prominent members of industry who have made this prediction are Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong; former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, and ARK Invest’s CEO Cathie W. Thielen believes that making such bold predictions is a great way to get media attention.
“Round numbers and the higher the number, the more it’s being quoted by the press,” Thielen argues that excessive predictions can do more harm than benefit.
“These optimistic price targets tend to hurt retail investors because they sort of think, OK, if this is only halfway right, then I’m gonna make a lot of money,” Thielen says.
“I think nearly everybody was still very bullish and projected higher prices [but] we came into the year already quite conservative, and you know, I think our conservative approach has been the right strategy,” Thielen says.
Thielen was asked by Cointelegraph which year Bitcoiners could reasonably expect Bitcoin to reach $1 million. “I don’t want to say never, but I do think, you know, a million is really a high number,” Thielen says.
“It would require, you know, a major credit event, implosion of everything.”
Cointelegraph is a publisher of long-form journalism. Cointelegraph also publishes analysis and narrative reports produced by Cointelegraph’s editorial team. Cointelegraph’s editors edit and review all articles in accordance with the editorial standards. Cointelegraph can earn commissions from affiliate links in some articles. The relationships we have with companies do not impact our reviews or editorial conclusions. This content does not provide financial, investment or legal advice. The reader should do their own research, and seek professional advice if necessary. Cointelegraph has complete editorial independence.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
