BitcoinBTC() has staged an impressive rebound following the US President Donald Trump announced The halt in tariffs is a positive sign for the bullish market. It could lead to a surge of up to $100,000.
BTC/USD retested $83,000 on the 9th of April, after a surge of approximately 9%. It reversed the majority losses that it had suffered earlier in week. The pair thus came closer towards validating the falling wedge pattern which has been appearing on its daily chart ever since December 2024.
When the price moves lower within a range that is defined by converging descending trendlines, it forms a falling wedge pattern.
The setup is perfect when the price rises to the maximum possible distance from the upper and the lower trendlines.
BTC/USD Daily Price Chart with Falling wedge Breakout Setup TradingView
Bitcoin price was contained within the falling wedge as of 9 April, while aiming for an upward breakout to its upper trendline around 83,000. BTC may reach its main upward target of around $100,000 in June, if the confirmation is made.
A rejection of the upper trendline would increase the probability that Bitcoin could retreat deeper into the wedge pattern. sliding toward the apex near $71,100.
Source: Merlijn The Trader
The most conservative target price for BTC is still $91,500 if a breakout happens after the level of $71,100.
Onchain data supports $100,000 Bitcoin outlook
Bitcoin’s recovery appears to be just ahead of a crucial onchain support area between $65,000- $71,000. This reinforces the bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency towards the 100,000 mark.
Notably, the $65,000-71,000 range is based on two important Bitcoin metrics—active realized price ($71,000) and the true market mean ($65,000).
Bitcoin on-chain short-term cost basis bands. Glassnode is a source for Bitcoin short-term onchain cost basis bands.
The metrics are used to estimate the price that active, current investors paid for their Bitcoin. The metrics remove coins that are either lost or have not been moved in some time, giving an accurate cost-basis for investors who still participate in the market.
Glassnode analysts say that in the past Bitcoin traded about 50% above or below the price range. This is an indicator of the mood on the market.
“We now have confluence across several onchain price models, highlighting the $65k to $71k price range as a critical area of interest for the bulls to establish long-term support,” They wrote it in the a recent weekly analysis, adding:
“Should price trade meaningfully below this range, a super-majority of active investors would be underwater on their holdings, with likely negative impacts on aggregate sentiment to follow.”
Related: Bitcoin has ‘fully decoupled’ despite tariff turmoil, says Adam Back
Bitcoin’s worst-case scenarios is that it will fall to $50,000
Bitcoin’s chances of reaching $100,000 in the near future could be harmed if it breaks below $65,000-71,000. These declines could also cause the price to fall below the 50-week moving exponential average (50 week EMA, the red wave).
BTC/USD Weekly Price Chart TradingView
The 50-week EMA—near $77,760 as of April 9—has historically acted as a dynamic support during bull markets and a resistance during bear markets, making it a crucial trend-defining level.
If this support is lost, it could lead to a more severe pullback towards the 200-week EMA at $50,000 (the “blue wave”). In the past, breakdowns below 50-week EMAs led to similar drops. This was the case during the 2019-2020 and 2021-2022 bear cycles.
If the test is successful, a $100,000 second attempt will be more likely.
The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
