PelinayPA of CryptoQuant believes there’s a 50% chance the BTC peak for this cycle hasn’t yet been reached. Bitcoin (BTC), which fell by more than 13% since its all-time record high ($126,199) earlier this month (October 6), is still a long way off.
Bitcoin Top Not In Yet – More Upside Ahead?
PelinayPA posted a CryptoQuant Quicktake that indicated there was a probability of 55% for Bitcoin to not have reached its top in the current market cycle. To support this claim, the analyst cited recent BTC on-chain flow data.
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PelinayPA’s analysis noted that, although BTC has fallen from over $126,000 in 2025 to about $109,000, the inflow of 0-1-day BTC to exchanges has increased.
A rise in 0-1 days BTC inflows to exchange typically has two implications – short-term traders are taking profits, and there is a temporary phase of repositioning of liquidity as traders transfer their holdings to exchanges, anticipating price volatility.
Analysts noted that BTC that has been held more than six month is mostly inactive. This indicates that holders of BTC for a long time are unlikely to be selling, even with the recent crash. The long-term investors are confident in the market, which reduces the likelihood of another large sell-off.
PelinayPA commented that such behaviour typically occurs during the maturing or mid-stages of a bear cycle. Any dip in price will be seen as a chance to accumulate, rather than a reversal of trend.
The Bitcoin market has entered a phase of natural consolidation within a trending upwards. Analyst added:
Bitcoin may return to the $102K area in the near future as traders take their profits. This selling pressure is mainly coming from the newer holders and will not disrupt the bullish trend. These dips could offer great entry opportunities.
Pelinay stated that, in conclusion, the fact that BTC investors have not sold their BTCs within the 6 month to 10 year time frame range indicates that there’s a probability of 55% that the bull-market top has been reached. not yet formed.
BTC could dip to $102,000
CryptoQuant’s contributor stated that even though it was likely that BTC has not yet reached its bull market peak, that doesn’t mean it won’t experience further short-term declines. BTC might once more test $102,000 as long as the selling is persistent.
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Likewise, Elliot Waves Academy noted that BTC likely ended the bullish leg in the market cycle. The analyst added BTC’s price is expected to remain at current levels.
A fellow CryptoQuant Contributor said this noted that BTC has entered the ‘disbelief phase,’ and may take the bears by surprise with a sharp surge in price. BTC is currently trading at $108,472, a 2% drop in 24 hours.
Featured Image from Unsplash. Charts by CryptoQuant, TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
