Expert challenges the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle theory

According to James Check, the bull-bear cycles of Bitcoin aren’t based on its halves as is widely thought.

“In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings,” Check out the latest news and updates on our website. said The blockchain has a cut in mining rewards every four to five years.

“He said that” market cycles The anchors are placed around the “trends in adoption and market structure,” With the peak of the 2017 and the bottom of the 2022 markets being the points for transition.

The three previous cycles are highlighted. “adoption cycle” Retail early adoption is the main driver of retail growth from 2011 until 2018. “adolescence cycle” From 2018 to 2022: a shift in the direction of “Wild West boom and bust with leverage,” Currents “maturity cycle” From 2022, all vehicles will be driven by “institutional maturity and stability.”

“Things changed after the 2022 bear market, and folks who assume the past will repeat likely miss the signal because they are looking at the historical noise,” He said.

The Halving Cycle Theory is still valid

Check’s analysis contradicts the popular notion that Bitcoin (BTC) market cycles The average duration of these events is four years. They are usually centered around the halving event, which causes a shock in supply due to the increased demand and decreased block rewards.

In 2013, it was the case that bull markets peaked in the years following the events of halving. 

Check has also stated that Bitcoin is “literally the only other endgame asset alongside gold,” Inferring that the cycle could be prolonged. 

When is the end of a 4-year cycle? 

Recent predictions have suggested that the four-year traditional schooling system will not be as effective. cycle This bull market is likely to continue into the next year, due to increased institutional participation.

Related: Is the four-year crypto cycle dead? Believers are growing louder

Matthew Hougan of Bitwise, chief investment officer Matthew Hougan stated earlier in the month about this cycle. “not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over.”

Entrepreneur “TechDev” told His 546,000 fans on X Tuesday “The business cycle’s dynamics are all that’s been needed to understand Bitcoin’s,” The graphs showed the highs and lows of previous cycles. 

This analysis shows that the shift from bearish to a bullish phase is driven more by the liquidity dynamics than by the four-year cycle of halving. The only difference, this time around, is an extended bullish period. 

Glassnode: Current cycle ending.

Glassnode analysts said that on August 20, they believed Bitcoin would be a success. still tracking Its traditional cycles. On Tuesday, the two groups met. reiterated Recently, there has been a recent increase in selling pressure and profit taking. “suggests the market has entered a late phase of the cycle.”

Bob Loukas, a position trader with a pragmatic approach to trading had another view. take Market cycles.

“I hear often, ‘There are no more Bitcoin cycles’. Reality is, we’re always in cycles. We just can’t help ourselves. We pump until it bursts, because we just want more. Then we start again. Only difference is how much shrapnel you avoid and how quickly you reset.”

Magazine: Bitcoin is ‘funny internet money’ during a crisis: Tezos co-founder