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Technical analyst who is closely followed says that altcoins’ outlook will be precarious until Bitcoin reaches a defined limit between $120,000 to $123,000. The weekly chart, however, still calls for caution as the momentum continues to slow.
Altcoins are still in danger zone
Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA framed The present setup is blunt: “This weekly BTC chart remains the most important chart out there for us to examine. While below the 120–123K zone and the weekly downtrending resistance on the weekly RSI I have to remain cautious.” Then he added, “I will be there.” “the most bullish person on the timeline” After clearing these levels, “until then we treat it for what it is and that is major resistance.”
Kevin’s reading ties altcoins directly to Bitcoins’ ability to rise higher. In a second post, Kevin warned that sentiments had changed in the exact wrong places. “Most of the #Crypto timeline got max bullish at 4 year historical resistance and was max bearish at major support back in April and even June.”
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It is important to resist the temptation to chase after optimism and not to. “air on the side of caution while #BTC and Total 2/#ETH remain under these major levels.” By referencing Total2—the market capitalization of crypto excluding Bitcoin—and EthereumKevin was able to effectively argue that the risk-on sentiment for altcoins will not last without a definitive Bitcoin breakout.
His framework includes macro conditions as a pivotal factor, but they are not a catalyst. “The July FOMC “It was never going to have much of a stake, and it would always be dull,” wrote he. He noted that there are two rounds more of data that will arrive before the meeting on September. “projections are roughly 50/50.” While reiterating his commitment to the market, he pointed out Core PCE for investors as their next destination. “be the most bullish” The price will only confirm the band if both momentum and price are confirmed above it. He plans to continue trading until then. “manage risk properly and sit back and watch the show unfold.”
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Market volatility and market structure may dictate the timing. “#BTC getting ready to make a move soon after volatility has dropped off a cliff over the last week,” Kevin remarked that typically, compressed ranges precede direction expansion.
According to him, this expansion is only possible if both the price resistance as well as the “downtrending resistance on the weekly RSI” To unlock the more bullish argument. The set-up is not a good one for altcoins without this confluence. Altcoins have historically been underperforming when the dominance of Bitcoin increases within ranges.
Kevin’s stance, delivered across posts on July 30–31, amounts to conditional optimism: the structural bull case for the asset class remains intact only if Bitcoin proves it by clearing the $120,000–$123,000 zone and reversing its weekly momentum profile. “Just be careful who you follow folks,” He warned. “There is some good ones but a lot of bad ones.”
He is still cautious about altcoins for now. Bitcoin and major breadth indicators are below these levels. The next definitive tests will be determined by data cadence in September, and volatility that decides which side to take.
The total market capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL2) at the time of publication was 1.48 trillion dollars.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
