Bitcoin (BTC), starting a new week around $63,000 but the bear-market is continuing to repeat itself with a weekly close under a long-term key trend line.
Important points
- Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated between $57.700 and $67.300, with the close of last week falling below the 200-week average.
- As the Federal Reserve meeting minutes for July are due to be released this week, markets are pricing in odds that are near 70%.
- The analysis says that Japan’s GDP for Q2 fell short of the expectations of 1.1%. “global tightening” Bitcoin and other assets at risk could face a significant impact.
Bitcoin closes below the 200-week Moving Average
Bitcoin prices rose modestly after the weekly close on Sunday, reaching local highs in Bitstamp of $63,655.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
TradingView data shows BTC/USD teetering on the water at the start of this week, with neither side challenging either other. narrow trading range.
Benjamin Cowen, an analyst, brought attention to the recent fact that Bitcoin/USD has fallen below its simple moving average of 200 weeks. As Cointelegraph reported. This moving-average was an important feature of the bearish market in 2022. It turned into resistance before BTC’s long-term bottoming period in August.
“What is interesting is how in both summer 2022/2026, Bitcoin capitulated below the 200W SMA, then bounced, then gave it up in mid-August,” He wrote Posting on X.
Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView. BTC/USD chart for one week with 200 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Rekt Capita, an analyst and trader, said that the price has failed to meet his target weekly closing of $63,220. He is therefore positioning himself for further declines in future.
“A rejection from $63,220 would fully confirm the breakdown and send price lower within the current ~$58,000-$66,000 Range (blue-blue)” He told X-followers with an explanation chart.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Fed minutes due amid policy dissent
The preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index data will be released on Friday for both the services and manufacturing sectors. Data has been trending upwards, despite the recent weakening of employment statistics. downward revisions.
In contrast, the Consumer Price Index release (CPI) last week, and Producer Price Index report (PPI), painted a pretty grim picture. softer-than-expected picture US inflation trend. Federal Reserve officials rethought their future rate hikes in light of this.
CME Group has released the latest statistics. FedWatch Tool Near-70% of the time, odds show that Fed rates will stay at 3.50-3.75 percent range. This is compared to 42% odds one month ago.
Fed target-rate probabilities for September FOMC (screenshot). Source: CME Group
“A pair of reports showing moderating inflation is helping keep the outlook for monetary policy from turning too hawkish,” Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company summarized and analyzed released On Sunday,
Mosaic noted that while CPI came in at 3.4% year-on-year, this was still far above the Fed’s 2% target — a goal that chair Kevin Warsh continues to state will be achieved. On Wednesday the Fed will release the minutes from its meeting in July. Rate hikes were paused The previous meeting saw the most significant split in opinion amongst officials since 1970.
Beth Hammack from the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank questioned last week whether or not public patience will tolerate several years for rates to return back to 2%.
“Maybe we’d get there, but if it takes another three to four years to get there, is that OK? Is that enough?” She said this at an event held by the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce, in Kettering Ohio. quoted Bloomberg.
Japan is on the radar after GDP disappointment
The central bank of Japan is making traders’ radars this week, after the Q2 GDP numbers were significantly below expectations. Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year GDP increased 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively — below the anticipated 0.5% and 2.0%.
As bond yields continue to rise and the yen continues its decline, the timing of this print coincides with the markets’ expectation that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in September from the current levels of 1.0%. Previously, Cointelegraph reported Japan and US made a joint intervention on the currency market for yen after JPY/USD hit new record lows.
BoJ interest rate probabilities. Source: RateProbability
In the GDP report, private consumption dropped for the first time in eight quarters. This indicates that current stimulus measures are not working to boost consumer confidence.
“The boost to consumption from policy measures is already fading, and inflation will increase in H2 as firms will pass on increased costs, deteriorating consumers’ purchasing power,” Norihiro Yamaguchi is the lead Japan economist for Oxford Economics. told CNBC.
On Monday, the yen remained near the 159-dollar mark following the release of GDP data.
USD/JPY four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Axel Adler Jr. noted the potential consequences for future risk assets in response to this event. Japan’s 10-year yield reached 2.93%, the highest level since 1996.
“For now, this is not a signal to sell risk assets. But the market is approaching an important point: JGB > 3% + further BOJ rate hikes + a stronger yen + rising US Treasury yields,” He wrote In an X-post.
“If these factors align, Japan’s rate normalization could turn into a global tightening of financial conditions and hit stocks and Bitcoin.”
Chart of Japan 10-year Bond Yields. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoins forgotten, as stock market gains contrast with low consumer sentiment
Bitcoin is being increasingly overlooked as rising stocks and record low consumer sentiment combine to create a warning signal.
Its latest newsletter was published on the website. The Week OnchainGlassnode, a crypto analytics platform revealed that Bitcoin’s sentiment was very different from the stock market.
“Consumer Confidence remains among the weakest readings of the past decade even after two consecutive improvements, while the US Stock Market Index set a fresh all-time high on August 7 and holds just beneath it,” It summarizes.
The softer US inflation prints helped send the S&P 500 to all-time highs of 7,816 on Thursday. Consumer sentiment was also boosted by the University of Michigan Expected to fall 7.6% by August.
“Weak sentiment next to record prices looks like a contradiction until the driver is named: households that expect living costs to rise and the economy to soften are moving out of cash and into assets. The equity market, carried above all by the AI trade, is where that capital lands,” Glassnode has commented.
US consumer sentiment data. Source: University of Michigan
Bitcoin is still left out. Glassnode said that the sustained increase of institutional investment in US Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) would signal a shift.
According to data from UK-based Investment Company, there were net outflows last week of $267.2 Million. Farside Investors. Only one of the five trading days ended with a net gain, amounting to $7.8 Million.
US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors
The exchange BTC reserve is growing with the focus on whale inflows
Bitcoin’s supply dynamics is the latest worrying feature in its price trajectory. CryptoQuant analysis reports.
Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today
Inflows from exchanges now largely consist of whales. This has exacerbated the absence of retail demand and caused BTC exchange reserves to rise. Binance’s whale ratio hit 0.71 in August, its highest level since March.
“Exchange deposits do not necessarily mean immediate selling, but they increase the amount of BTC available for trading or hedging,” CryptoQuant has commented.
Binance whale exchange ratio Source: CryptoQuant
Binance BTC reserves reached 674 332 BTC Sunday. This is the highest level since November 2025 and represents a 2.57% increase in the last month.
“The long-running trend of BTC leaving exchanges may therefore be weakening,” CryptoQuant continues.
Binance BTC Reserves CryptoQuant Source: Binance
You can also read about the advantages of using Cointelegraph reportedSince early June, the exchange has been driven by derivatives as BTC/USD is trading in a narrow range. Binance’s futures volume in early August was eight times higher than the spot market.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
