Bitcoin: What Bitcoin traders will be watching for this Week

Bitcoin (BTC), which is expected to reach new highs in the second half of June, has traders looking for a bullish trend.

Important points

• BTC’s price targets near-by liquidity, as a trader identifies the “most important” Support zone next to be held.
• The US stock market performance provides analysis with reason to think that good times will continue in the US “record” retail risk appetite.
• Bitcoin’s price should already reflect the impact of a stock market correction, according to new warnings.
• Data on exchange inflows shows a cooling of panic among retail investors and whales.
• The crypto market is on the verge of exit, with sentiment at a monthly high. “extreme fear.”

Bitcoin Key Support Emerges As Bulls Aim $64,000

Bitcoin kept up pressure on short positions into the weekly close, hitting $63,960 — its highest levels since June 23, per data from TradingView.

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In the past 24 hours the total amount of crypto shorts liquidated was just above $100 million. CoinGlass reports.

BTC/USD and crypto liquidation (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Exitpump, a X account, was one of those who attributed the movements to liquidation hunts when they commented on the low timeframes.

“Seeing aggressive selling from spot markets, spot CVD (yellow) trending down while perps CVD (blue) is flat,” they reported On Monday, we will be referring to the cumulative volume delta in exchange order books.

BTC/USD charts with Order Book Data Source: Exitpump/X

If Bitcoins’ price were to reverse downward, Killa, a trader, called the area between $60,400-$60,900. “most important.”

“If we cannot hold this price region on a revisit, I’m afraid we are going to trend directly to the lows again. Something to watch out for next week,” The analyst told X-Followers

BTC/USD chart. Source: Killa/X

The following are some of the ways to get in touch with us. Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants still see Bitcoin’s bear-market low as yet to come — despite a growing number of bullish trend reversal signals.

This week, Roman the trader, who had been long-bearish on BTC/USD remained optimistic about longer timeframes.

“Still looking excellent to continue our reversal to see higher prices in the interim,” Post X read.

“I still have a feeling we put in one more macro low before the bottom is officially in, but there are dozens of macro reversal signs all over HTF.”

BTC/USDT one-week chart. Source: Roman/X

Retail risk appetite hits record levels

Bitcoin’s waning ability to copy equities The US Stock Futures are starting higher this week after the Holiday Weekend.

Analysts remain optimistic about the US economy, despite BTC/USD reaching near-two-week highs.

“Although the S&P 500 is coming off a hot second quarter with a 15% gain, the index topped in early June and has yet to make a new high,” In the most recent edition of their regular newsletter, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company writes: The Market Mosaic. 

“But the S&P 500 trading within a bullish continuation pattern and has been finding support at a key level.”

S&P 500 market data. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Mosaics added the average stock “has been rallying to new record highs.”

“That includes the equal-weight S&P 500, small-cap stocks with the Russell 2000 Index, and the NYSE advance/decline line. New highs minus new lows across major exchanges are jumping higher as well,” It is noted. 

The following are some of the ways to get in touch with us. Cointelegraph reportedLast week, the Federal Reserve’s policy was viewed as hawkish by some markets due to recent data about US inflation.

CME Group has released the latest statistics. FedWatch Tool The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at the current level in July as well as September.

Fed target rates (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Another potential macro tailwind for Bitcoin comes in the form of retail investor demand for risk — despite the cohort’s crypto exodus This year. This year’s analysis options dataThe Kobeissi Message described risk appetite in retail as being “at record levels.”

“Retail demand for short-term options has never been higher,” The report on X.

This week the Fed will publish the minutes of the meeting it held in June, at which the Fed also maintained the same rate. The markets will react to the Purchasing Managers Index numbers (PMI), along with other employment data.

“We expect another volatile week ahead as markets brace for earnings season,” Kobeissi added.

Warning over pre-Midterm stock market correction

Not all participants in the market are confident that this bullish stock market will continue. Andre Dragosch is the European Head of Research at Bitwise, a crypto asset manager. 

“What if there is a bigger stock market correction right before the Midterms?” He asked him in X posts Referring to the US Elections, on Monday.

Dragosch highlighted the most recent data of the MacroQuant equity risk model by BCA Research, a macro analytics firm. The warning was that the data presented by BCA Research’s MacroQuant Equity Risk Model is outdated. “flashing a bear market warning signal.”

A chart comparing current Bitcoin readings with those seen last in 2021, the time when Bitcoin’s previous bull run reached its top.

Source: Andre Dragosch/X

It is a good idea to get in touch. extended X post Dragosch argued last week that the crypto market had priced in most of the worst case scenario macro could face in the future, namely a fall in stock markets and an American recession.

“In other words, even if a AI crash and a subsequent US recession materialized, much of that pain appears to be already reflected in Bitcoin prices, which points to reduced downside from here,” He summarized.

Dragosch gave Bitcoin a “decent chance” Nasdaq is outperforming “on a relative basis over the coming months.”

Whales are leading exchange outflows

New data reveals that Bitcoin investors cooled selling significantly in the second half of June — even as price set new multi-year lows.

It is a QuickTake blog postCryptoQuant’s onchain analysis platform confirmed that retail and whale investor inflows have decreased.

“Bitcoin whale activity on Binance has cooled sharply since mid-June, with the rolling 30-day value of whale inflows falling by nearly $2.4 billion,” contributor Amr Taha confirmed.

Inflows of retail investors fell at a slower rate, from $10.02bn on June 12th to $8.2bn on July 6th.

“Whale inflows fell at nearly twice the rate of retail inflows, reducing the relative role of large holders in exchange-bound Bitcoin supply. Meanwhile, the gap between retail and whale inflows widened from about $2.98 billion to $3.55 billion,” Taha continued.

Binance has been hailed as the Bitcoin Whale Exchange (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported The overall confidence in the market is increasing around its lows.

CryptoQuant points out that inflows of exchange are not a reliable indicator for investors who intend to sell.

“The key question now is whether Binance whale inflows stabilize around the current $4.65 billion level or continue moving lower,” Taha concluded. 

“A further decline would reinforce the view that large Bitcoin holders are becoming less active on the exchange compared with the retail cohort.”

The crypto market is a concern “easing, not gone”

This week, the modest Bitcoin recoveries was enough to boost sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Related: Bollinger Bands creator eyes Bitcoin bear-market end, ‘W’-shaped reversal

Latest readings on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index The aggregated sentiment of the population is on its way out “extreme fear” For the first time since over a week, I am feeling energized.

Fear & Greed measured 24/100 on Monday, more than double its score at the start of July.

“That’s a clear improvement from recent lows. But the market is still in Extreme Fear,” trader Master of Crypto responded On X. 

“Fear is easing, not gone.”

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

As a lagging indicator, Fear & Greed tends to mirror existing shifts in market behavior post factum. Although the Index’s calculation is based on several factors, its ability to predict the future direction of a trend cannot be predicted.

The author, in his own words: latest analysis Anndy Lian, a blockchain adviser and commentator who published a piece this week argued that Bitcoin bulls should back their confidence with tangible price movements.

“A successful breakout above that US$65,000 threshold would open the door to a broader test of the 100-day moving average, which currently hovers near US$69,500,” He wrote. 

“Conversely, failing to sustain the current momentum carries severe downside risks.”