Bitcoin battles US dollar and Iran nerves at $64,000 this Week

The Bitcoin price (BTC) is hovering around $64,000 at the start of this week. However, market participants are expecting plenty to happen.

The following are key points.

• History shows that Bitcoin has rarely enjoyed a DXY strong.
• BTC’s price reduction is likely to be next, since July usually does the opposite from June.
• PCE data on inflation is set to be released against a background of uncertainty in the US-Iran relationship.
• The relationship between Bitcoin and oil prices increases the chances of $60,000 holding.
• Whales may not be interested in short-term investors, but they are still there. “capitulation” Prices are current.

Bitcoins traders look to new US Dollar challenge

This week, the US-Iran conflict has brought back a familiar factor that is affecting Bitcoin’s price.

TradingView’s data show that the US dollar index DXY is now above 100. It has reached its highest levels for over a month.

BTC/USD vs. US Dollar Index (DXY), four-hour graph. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

DXY measures the dollar’s strength against a basket US trading partners currencies. inversely correlated Crypto markets. The index’s continued strength is a danger to the broader gains in risky assets and crypto.

“Breaking the big 100 level while being supported by its Daily 200MA/EMA,” Trader Daan Crypto Trades in one page. post on X At the weekend, we refer to moving averages of 200 days simple (SMA), and exponential (EMA). 

“If this ends up holding above 100, it would put some pressure on risk assets. So it’s good to watch.”

US dollar index chart (DXY). Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Trader Benjamin Cowen saw DXY continues to be active “bull case” The second half of 2026.

Chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY), one-week. Source: Benjamin Cowen/X

“$DXY is currently testing the upper range of a megaphone aka broadening wedge pattern. If it breaks above this pattern instead of rejecting then that would be a pretty big upward target– somewhere around 106,” ColinTalksCrypto is the creator of the YouTube Channel of the same title. added. 

“It would be bad for risk assets as well.”

US dollar index (DXY) chart. Source: ColinTalksCrypto/X

Trader Aksel Kibar expected The following are some of the ways to get in touch with each other: “important week” DXY looks to the end of an intensive year of consolidation.

Bitcoin has remained at $64,000 since the end of last week, despite some volatility.

BTC Price Action focuses on July Benefits

Rekt, the trader-analyst who provided his most recent market commentary had good news for Bitcoin supporters.

The historical correlation between June and July suggests that, despite the BTC’s price decline this month the pressure could soon be eased.

“History suggests that whatever June does, July will do the opposite,” He told X fans this weekend

“Therefore if June is red, July will likely be green.”

BTC/USD chart for the month of January with 21EMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X

A chart with accompanying data showed that BTC/USD was acting within a range bordered between its 21-month EMAs and 50 month EMAs.

“So if June ends the month like this, it will confirm a loss of the 50-Month EMA as support. And so July will likely relief rally to turn the EMA into new resistance,” Rekt Capital has been added.

Bulls should expect to see BTC prices continue their downward trend in the near future. Earlier, Rekt Capital suggested Once again, historical patterns suggest that the bearish market will continue to persist for a few months.

“History suggests there’s still time left and a bit more downside to go,” He reiterated Comparing previous bear markets, click on X.

BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

PCE Data Due with US-Iran Peace Under Pressure

The US Federal Reserve continues to focus on the inflation rate as it prepares for its next meeting. “preferred” Yardstick is the first to release macro data.

On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCEI) for May will be released.

US PCE index change in % (screenshot). Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

PCE April 2004 hitting three-year highsThe ongoing effects of the US/Iran War on the inflation trend.

“While investors are hoping that the deal between the U.S. and Iran and corresponding pullback in oil prices will temper inflation, price pressures are spreading beyond energy,” The latest issue of Mosaic Asset Company’s regular newsletter explains the trading resource. The Market Mosaic. 

“That’s because multiple catalysts are coming together at the same time to drive a jump in inflation.”

Highlighted Mosaic “large” The federal budget deficit and issues with supply chains are contributing factors to the cost increase.

“Cost increases from energy prices and upheaval following last year’s trade war are likely playing a key role,” It is added to a graph of Producer Price Index data. 

“You can see that supply chain pressures tends to lead changes in producer prices.”

Source: Mosaic Asset Company. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Inflation is higher, so the Fed has less of a chance to lower interest rates. That creates headwinds for risk assets and crypto. As Cointelegraph reportedThe markets expect the Fed to raise rates even before the end the year.

CME Group has released the latest statistics. FedWatch Tool The odds are around 36% that the Fed will raise rates at its next meeting, which is scheduled for late July.

Fed Target Rate Probabilities for the July 29 FOMC Meeting (screenshot) Source: CME Group

“Concerns over persistently high inflation isn’t the only reason for the Fed to consider hiking interest rates. Recent economic data has been surprising to the upside as well,” Mosaic note

In addition to the PCE data, you can also expect revised Q1 GDP and preliminary jobless claims on Thursday.

Oil helps preserve $60,000 support odds

Despite already showing strains, the US-Iran Peace Deal has left a long lasting effect on oil prices.

The US WTI crude oil contract was signed by both parties. fell to $73 per barrelThis is the lowest it has been since early March.

CFDs on US WTI one-day crude oil chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin’s correlation with oil has been inverse. In recent weeks, the relationship has changed as the risk assets have risen and the peace agreement still provides a way to reach the $60,000 area.

Glassnode, an analytics platform on the blockchain, believes that Bitcoin bulls should relax for now based upon oil’s recent moves.

“Bitcoin rallied, and also gold rallied,” The word “it” is used in an video analysis Late last week I added that the accumulation trend was helping to support $60,000 for a local bottom.

Glassnode described “decent” Buy at low prices.

“I believe there’s a chance that this may be a durable bottom, at least to a certain extent — maybe not the absolute bottom, but I think there’s a decent chance that that $60,000 level will be defended by quite a few different cohorts here,” The conclusion was reached.

As Cointelegraph reportedBinance is the world’s largest exchange. It has made headlines in recent weeks due to its aggressive Bitcoin sales.

Related: Bitcoin market cap rebound to take ‘5-10 years’ after dropping 10 places since mid-2025

Its latest researchCryptoQuant’s onchain analysis platform sheds light, in particular, on the size of offloads, which are primarily newer investors.

“Once again, it was the STHs who suffered the most from this correction and reacted most sharply,” Darkfost, a contributor to Sunday’s newspaper.

Darkfost referred to short-term holders (STHs) — investors hodling coins for up to six months. BTC/USD falling back to its February lows – a fall of almost 30% compared with the May peak – resulted an “emotional” Response from the cohort

“During the month of June, STH inflows on Binance exceeded 80,000 BTC over 7 days, representing approximately $5B in selling pressure,” He reported.

Bitcoin STH inflows (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The actions of high-volume investors have not yet reflected the effect of the sales. They remain indifferent to the current prices. CryptoZeno, a CryptoQuant contributor who analyzed the profits of newer and older Bitcoin whales to determine the current market equilibrium, suggested this by comparing the old-school Bitcoin whales with the more recent ones.

“The gap between long-term and short-term whale profitability highlights a market transitioning through consolidation rather than capitulation,” You can also find out more about the following: summarized. 

“Long-term whales continue to hold positions despite reduced gains, while short-term whales remain largely neutral. This combination often reflects a period of market stabilization where speculative excess is gradually removed from the system.”

Bitcoin whale (screenshot): Unrealized profit ratio. Source: CryptoQuant