Research firm K33 believes that Bitcoin’s on-chain data is hard to ignore. In its most recent market overview report, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde pointed to a record share of Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders — a metric that, historically, has preceded the end of every major bear market in Bitcoin’s history.
According to K33, this is an all-time-high that reflects the continued trend of accumulation and the gradual transition toward a positive market.
This figure is important not just as an isolated data point but also as part of the larger pattern. In every previous bear market for Bitcoin, the supply circulating has tended to be on the downside. long-term holders As the market neared its bottom.
Data on the reactivation of old coins confirms this picture. As of June 6, only 218,421 BTC aged two years or more had been reactivated in 2026 — a near-historic low. By the same date, only 70,600 BTC were reactivated in 2012.
By contrast, 2024 was a starker year: by the 6th of June that year 1,18,000,000 BTCs had been activated. The high volume of distribution during the previous cycle is reflected in this.
Lunde describes the current market as one in which long-term investors show a diminished desire to sell and patient buyers absorb whatever supplies reach the market.
Bitcoin ETFs are now being sold at a lower price
The thesis also aligns with other on-chain indicators and market-structure indicator. Exchange-traded fund outflows — a dominant source of selling pressure in recent weeks — have eased. Trading volume is at a yearly low, which K33 attributes to the end of Bitcoin bear market rather than the start of a new sell cycle.
Last week, Lunde noted that 50% of BTC’s circulating supply is now underwater, a level historically reached only within weeks of major bear market bottoms — though often with one final leg lower before a turn.
K33’s cautious optimism isn’t shared by all analysts. Wintermute Glassnode Bitfinex each have flagged ETF flows and stablecoins growth have yet to reach levels that are consistent with an durable reversal.
Bitcoin may fall to as little as $30,000.
Bitcoin macro conditions
The macro conditions are also a source of concern heading into this week. Today’s FOMC meeting — the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — has drawn close attention from the crypto market.
The markets still price in possible hikes for 2026. With Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 sitting near 0.6, any shift in the Fed’s tone could hit BTC with an amplified reaction, as the asset tends to be more sensitive to macro developments during bear market conditions.
BTC, which had suffered two weeks in a row of losses of over 10%, has posted a gain of 5.5% this past week. It is now trading near $65,000 as of today, Friday, June 17th.
Price is roughly down by 16% in a month from mid-May’s level, which was near $79,000. It trades at almost 40% of its original price. all-time high In October 2025, $126.198 will be reached.
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Source: bitcoinmagazine.com
