Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has increased by about 40% since its lows in February. This could be the deciding factor for whether or not the bear market will continue.
Takeaways from the conference:
- Bitcoin declined 2.25% from $80,500 to about $82,250 after failing to overcome its 200 day EMA resistance.
- Bitcoins dropped 25% or 36% in response to previous rejections on the same technical level.
Breaking the key trend line is a must for Bitcoin bulls
BTC/USD is down 2.25% on Monday near $85,500. This erases its overnight gains, as buyers have failed to break the 200-day moving average.
This level is the ceiling for Bitcoin’s attempts to rebound since November 2025. The 200-day EMA is a key indicator of Bitcoin’s decline. Each time it has been rejected, the price fell by 25% or 36%. This puts the average drop at 30%.
BTC/USD chart for the day. Source: TradingView
The author, in his own words: Monday postAnalyst Brett stated that breaking above the 200 day EMA (currently near $82,580) could be beneficial. “the end of the bears.” Bitcoin has been on a downward trend for some time now, but it is possible that BTC will continue to drop in the future.
BTC price may fall to $56,600 if BTC repeats the 30% average decline from its 200-day EMA rejected zone.
BTC rate “lifetime support” model shows $56,000 floor
Bitcoins macro-support range is roughly $56,600.
Bitcoin Support Lifetime Model: highlighted PlanC analyst places BTC BTC’s upper support range near $57.110. Lower support is roughly at the level of $46,760.
Bitcoin lifetime support model. Source: Coin Metrics/PlanC
This model calculates the average of Bitcoin’s simple moving average over its lifetime, using single, double, triple, and quadruple EMAs. It then draws a band around that result, containing 10%.
In the past, such lifetime support zones have served as macro-bear market floors. Bitcoin is currently in a bearish setup, and a fall towards the mid-$50,000 range would place BTC close to a significant long-term support level.
Bitcoin has not yet been resolved bear flag pattern As shown in the graph below, this could also indicate a possible drop under $60,000 within upcoming weeks.
BTC/USD chart. TradingView
Bitcoin’s rise in 2026 is a mirror of past cycles bottoms
Bitcoin’s most recent bounce off of the 200 week simple moving average (220 SMA) (blue line), despite its near-term negative setup, is sending a historically positive signal.
BTC jumped by more than 38% when it tested the 200-week SMA at $61,000. The blue line is very similar to the major bottoms of 2018 and March 2020.
BTC/USD Weekly Chart TradingView
Bitcoin has briefly dropped below or near the 200-week SMA in both instances before staging a steady recovery towards the 50-week SMA.
Related: Analyst says Bitcoin’s $60K bottom signals weaken bear-market forecast
Bitcoin’s next upside target could be near $94,700If the fractal pattern continues, it could be up by approximately 17%. Brett could be correct in his belief that the bear markets is close to its end.
A bullish outlook also comes with strong fundamentals. This includes aggressive whale accumulation. recently absorbed nearly 500% of Bitcoin’s newly issued supply.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
