The CBOE Volatility Index, a Wall Street favorite to assess investor sentiment and the market’s risk, has dropped more than 45% in less than one month. Bitcoin (BTCIf this is the case, it could represent a bullish indicator.
Takeaways from the conference:
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If VIX continues to underperform, Bitcoin could rise as high as $82,700.
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BTC’s upward outlook is boosted by Strategy’s BTC-buying spree.
BTC may rise to $82,700 with a weakening VIX
Wall Street has been called by many names “fear gauge,” the VIX tracks how much volatility traders expect in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days.
If the index increases, this usually indicates a rise in stress and risk-aversion on all markets. Its fall indicates investors becoming more comfortable with riskier assets, such as crypto and stocks.
According to history, a drop in VIX of more than 40% can be bullish for Bitcoin.
For instance, BTC rallied approximately 40% during April 2025–May 2025, with its gains aligning with the VIX’s 70% dip.
Similarly, a 46% VIX drop during the October–November 2025 period coincided with a 12% BTC gain.
Even the recent 42%–47% VIX decline has coincided with an 8%–9% BTC price rebound, improving the bullish backdrop for Bitcoin in the coming days.
BTC appears to have a next upward target around the 200 day exponential moving average (220-day EMA – blue line), at about $82,700 in early May.
What will happen to Bitcoin when VIX begins rising?
A rising VIX tends to be bearish on risk assets such as Bitcoin. Charts show that this correlation was broken briefly by the end of March. highlighted Swissblock, a wealth management company.
BTC and VIX rose in tandem during the US–Iran escalation in March. The broader market for risk, including US equities, underperformed.
Bitcoin’s resilience might have had a potential catalyst. Strategy’s aggressive BTC buyingSince March, the coin has been consumed by a volume equivalent to almost 30 weeks’ worth of supply.
Related: Saylor teases ‘bigger’ BTC buy days after floating semi-monthly dividends
“Bitcoin has already shown inherent strength in a very complex environment”Swissblock added:
“Do not be surprised if it starts to outperform on its own again.”
Anyhow, slowdown in Strategy’s buying Could weaken Bitcoin’s support in periods of increasing VIX, increasing risk to the downside.
Multiple analysis suggest BTC may drop below $50,000 in 2026.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
